A warm winter combined with drought conditions in California could lead to a smaller lemon crop for the state this year. While sizes could skew smaller, less volume will likely mean robust prices for growers.“The California lemon crop will be smaller, both in fruit size and volume, because of the drought,” said Fred Strickland of Fillmore Piru Citrus. “On top of that, changing weather patterns may have affected this season's bloom.” Strickland explained that a warm winter probably compromised the quality of this year's bloom, and because it takes about nine months for a lemon to flower into fruit, the effects of unseasonably warm weather could be very apparent in this year's summer crop of lemons. He estimates that volume could be down by about five percent from the previous year.
“Five percent is big for lemons because the demand for lemons is extremely inelastic,” said Strickland. “People buy only what they need, and they'll pay almost anything for what they need. So when you have a shortage of lemons, people don't want to pay a lot, but they will.” On April 13, prices for a carton of first grade 75s were between $23.80 and $27.90 out of the Southern District, and prices for a carton of size 140s were between $34.80 and $38.90.
Fruit could be smaller by about one size this year, and the most prevalent sizes could be closer to 140 than to 115. Strickland chalks that up to older trees producing smaller fruit, but the biggest reason, he noted, is the lack of water that the state's growers have had access to in the past few years.
“Everybody's concerned because tree crops are vulnerable to short term water shortages,” said Strickland. “You have to water the trees, and the drought will really affect all row crops.”
For more information:
Fred Strickland
Fillmore Piru Citrus
+1 805 521 1781