World Apple and Pear Association (WAPA) has reported that domestic apple production in Russia for 2017 is expected to be down by 37%, after late frosts and heavy rains hit production. However, this will not be the only reason why apple sales could be down this year. According to industry sources, 'The combination of rising apple prices and falling Russian consumer incomes has been the biggest factor in the decline of both imports and apple sales in the Russian market, industry sources acknowledge.'
Since 2013 the price of apples per kilogramme is up by 30%, more than any other fruit or vegetable in the country.
Despite recent increases in production, Marek Marzec from Ewa-Bis, said that Russian apple production only fills around 20% of the demand.
"Russia has been trying to develop the domestic apple industry for the last 20 years, sure, they have made some progress, but no where what is needed to become self sufficient. The positive thing about Russia is that it is such a large country with many different regions, they should be able always have success despite what the weather might throw at them." said Marek.
Igor Muhanin, President of the Association of Fruit and Berry Producers (ASPRUS), had initially said that apple imports in 2016 had reached 1.38 million tonnes, but later revised that amounts to 1.25 million tonnes, saying that smuggling continued to be an issue in Russia, which authorities there have found it difficult to keep up with.
"The Agriculture Ministry is providing a subsidy payment to apple growers for planting new orchards and equipping them for higher yields of Rb236,000 ($4,140) per hectare. The experts say this represents between 10% and 25% of the costs of planting and equipping new high-yield apple orchards." said Muhanin.
Estimates have claimed that Russian apple consumption came to 2.5 million tonnes in 2016, about 100,000 tonnes (4%) more than 2015. By 2020 the forecast is for consumption of 3 million tonnes; this represents an annual rate of growth of 4%.
According to BusinesStat, "The rate of growth of both domestic production and imports will depend not on the recovery of Russian consumer incomes and demand, and not on the sanctions or the increase in investments for commercial domestic orchards."
"This year, apple sales will grow by just 1.7%, roughly the same as government and expert forecasts for Russia’s GDP growth. As the resumption of growth in real incomes begins, apple sales will grow in the retail sector. In 2021 the sale of apples in Russia will amount to 2.08 million tonnes, which will exceed the 2016 level by 35.7%.”