Fundecitrus, along with its cooperators, has issued a second update for the 2024–25 orange crop forecast within São Paulo and the West-Southwest Minas Gerais Citrus Belt. The latest projection, dated December 10, estimates the crop at 223.14 million 90-pound boxes, marking a 3.4% increase from the September update. However, this figure represents a 4% decrease from the initial May forecast, which anticipated 232.38 million boxes.
The detailed forecast by orange variety shows adjustments from the September figures: Hamlin, Westin, and Rubi varieties are expected to reach 37.63 million boxes, marking a 3.2% increase. Other early-season oranges are forecasted at 15.4 million boxes, with a 3.4% increase. Pera Rio variety projections stand at 72.51 million boxes, showing a significant 14.3% increase. Valencia and Folha Murcha varieties are expected to decrease by 3.4%, totaling 71.87 million boxes, and Natal variety projections are down by 3.3% to 25.73 million boxes. The forecast includes 202.91 million boxes from the first three blooms and 20.23 million from the fourth bloom, with an estimated 14.79 million boxes harvested in the Triângulo Mineiro region.
The rainy season has brought much-needed revitalization to groves after a prolonged drought, with rainfall volumes surpassing the historical average from 1991 to 2020 starting in October and continuing into November. Despite this, the citrus belt has experienced an increase in fruit drop rates to 19% in the December forecast, attributed to citrus greening disease and mechanized operations like pruning.
Regarding fruit weight, it is now estimated that 261 fruits are needed to fill a 90-pound box, which is three fruits less than previously estimated. Among all varieties, only the Pera Rio showed an increase in fruit weight since the September projection.
The schedule for future forecasts of Brazil's 2024–25 orange season includes a third crop forecast update on February 10, 2025, followed by the final crop forecast on April 10, 2025.
Source: Citrus Industry