A shortage of table grapes are reported in many key markets leading to very high prices ahead of the crucial Christmas to New Year's sales period. The earlier finish of the California, Spain and Italy seasons along with a delayed start to South Africa's season is making for a challenging switch over to supply regions. Supermarkets in the UK paid more to airfreight grapes from Namibia and South Africa. Peru and Brazil have also seen increased demand, but logistical delays caused problems to reach the higher demand sooner. In North America, where prices are high too, retailers are transitioning from California storage grapes to Peruvian and Brazilian fruit.
In the Netherlands a hot grape market is expected throughout December. Prices are high due to the short supply in Germany too. Italy's switch to seedless grapes is advancing rapidly. Prices are sky high in Spain due to the shortage of supply. In France the last grapes from Spain and Italy are still on the market, with high demand and prices seen there.
South Africa: Late start to season with average sized crop expected
The export estimate is 76.4 million cartons, of which over 4 million cartons were inspected for export up until Week 48, which is 30% less than the same time last year due to a later start to the season.
Despite a slow start to the season, which was frustrating given the excellent market conditions, the weather in the Orange River is conducive for a good quality crop without rain damage. During the first weeks of the season a sizeable amount of grapes were flown out to retailers in the Northern Hemisphere anxious to have stock on the shelves.
An exporter notes, "The late start is due to a colder spring while the Brix of especially the early white grapes is taking longer to pick up than usual. There are not many grapes to sell, so prices remain high. Supermarkets are currently paying a premium for airfreight just to keep some product on the shelves."
Another exporter commented, "Despite the late start South Africa's focus always remains on sending quality grapes. At this stage the fruit looks healthy, while it points to good berry size and a favourable market."
The Chinese New Year is slightly earlier this year and grapes for the festival will be packed in the first week of the New Year. However, an exporter notes there's still a lot of Shine Muscat grapes from Asia in the Chinese market.
In the Northern Hemisphere, the effect of the pressure on consumers' disposable income should not be underestimated, remarks an exporter, despite the strong start due to low stock levels.
Namibia: Harvest volumes lower, despite higher estimate
Namibia's export estimate is 9.3 million cartons in the 2024/2025 season, slightly more than the 9.1 million cartons of the 2023/2024 season. A South African exporter who also sends fruit from Namibia noted that their red varieties are lower.
North America: Less North American grape supply keeps prices strong
Grape supply in North America is transitioning growing regions.
California: Retailers are transitioning from California storage grapes to Peruvian fruit and some Brazilian, though California product is expected to stay west of the Mississippi.
Peru: Through New Year's, Peruvian fruit will dominate the market. Northern Peru has more and better fruit than last season but its harvest has run later. In all, 38 percent of Peru's grape tonnage has been directed to the U.S. compared to last year's 44 percent.
South Africa: Harvest in the Northern Cape is also a week to 10 days later than normal though with very hot European and UK markets, there's little inclination to divert fruit to the U.S. before Christmas.
Chile: Chile is also late by about 10 days. The earliest loadings (week 48–142 metric tons or 17, 311 cases) are primarily older varieties of Thompson Seedless and Prime. Volume is not expected until around Christmas.
Less supply has pushed prices higher, impacting movement. Through week 49, Peruvian red seedless table grapes are US$36–$38, size depending. White seedless is at US$40–$44. Pricing should remain firm through Christmas.
Netherlands: A hot grape market expected throughout December
The grape market is currently characterized by high demand. "Especially from the north of Peru, the volumes have been very low. The more southern region of Ica has higher production. Meanwhile, supplies from Namibia and South Africa are starting to come through, but I expect the market to remain tight throughout December because the market was so exhausted," says an importer. Prices are also at high levels, above 2 euros per punnet. How the market will look in January remains to be seen. "The transit time from South Africa is two to three weeks, so it will really depend on what gets shipped at that time."
Belgium: good demand despite sky-high prices
"The grape market is really a hot at the moment", indicates a Belgian importer. "The grapes come mainly from Peru. There really is a shortage at the moment. This is partly due to last weekend's storm here. That made the supply somewhat difficult, because ships couldn't unload and the grapes didn't come in. Italy also finished a bit early, so the market was fairly empty. Combine that with good consumption towards the festive season and it is no wonder that prices are sky-high, but demand keeps going up, which is extraordinary. In the coming weeks, though, more grapes will start coming in again. Namibia was there a bit last week and South Africa is now coming into the market with some volumes, but that's no problem. The market is so good that these will also find their way to trade smoothly."
Italy: Switch to seedless grapes advancing rapidly
Italy, which has always been one of the leaders in traditional seeded grapes, is also a candidate to become one of the references in the seedless segment, according to the Association of Italian Table Grape Operators. In Puglia, for example, a specialised region that holds the record for the area under table grapes, more than 70% of the hectares are now devoted to seedless varieties. Sicily also appears to have made up some ground, with more than 40% of its area devoted to recently introduced varieties. In the case of seeded grapes, prices have remained fairly high, as there are fewer hectares in production.
A producer in Puglia says: "For me, it was a good harvest and, above all, a good marketing campaign. The dry winter, the non-existent spring and the excessively hot summer had us worried about the quality of the product and the overlapping of all the varieties, from early to late, in a single month. The climatic upheaval in 2024 also led to a drastic reduction in quantities, especially of the traditional varieties, including the Italia variety. The low level of production, characterised by high quality and above average Brix levels, meant that the famous supply/demand balance resulted in record selling prices for all varieties, even and especially for the now increasingly rare traditional grapes. The grape year ended early, at least 20 days earlier than in previous years, due to lower quantities, but with great economic satisfaction for producers and traders. The next campaigns will have to face the most important test, with the arrival in production of many hectares converted from traditional to seedless, in order to follow the trend of consumption. The year 2025 will be the test for many of us. Will the market be able to supply all the quantities expected while maintaining the prices of 2024?".
In Sicily, the 2024 table grape season ended about a month early at the end of November. Despite lower yields, production quality was very good. Demand, particularly from Italian and foreign retailers, was very strong for all varieties of table grapes, but especially for seedless. The trend in production is to uproot old varieties and plant seedless ones. In the early stage of production, prices were fair, averaging 1.20 €/kg for traditional seeded varieties and 1.50 €/kg for seedless varieties. Among the medium-late varieties, Sweet Globe and Autumn Crisp (both seedless) were notable, averaging €1.60/kg and above, while the seeded varieties Red Globe and Italia averaged €1.25/kg.
Low and too expensive: this is how a wholesaler in northern Italy describes the last few weeks of sales of Italian table grapes, with little product and high prices. For example, top-quality seedless grapes are currently being sold on the wholesale market for €8/kg, a figure that the wholesaler himself describes as too high, as the shops then have to resell them for at least €10. And at these prices, consumption falls sharply. There are also cheaper seedless varieties, at €4-5/kg, but they are not very popular with consumers. Seedless grapes are in great demand and availability cannot satisfy the market, while traditional grapes have been out of stock for several days, creating a supply gap.
Spanish Aledo white grapes and Peruvian Autumn Crisp and Red Globe are also available in wholesale.
Germany: Tight supply with high prices.
The current grape market is characterized by an overall tight supply situation and a correspondingly high price level. Lower export volumes from Peru were available for the European market this year, as more goods were shipped to the USA. The first goods from Namibia will be available from week 50. According to initial forecasts, volumes in Namibia will fall by 25-33 percent. In South Africa, however, the current outlook for the upcoming season is quite good. The first goods are expected to arrive from early to mid-January.
Spain: Sky high prices due to shortage in supply
The grape imports into Spain began significantly challenging in November prior to perhaps the most important time of the year for the grape consumption in the Spanish market, which is the traditional New Year's Eve campaign. The first shipments coming from Peru and Brazil faced various difficulties that delayed their arrival. These producing origins had an usually high demand from Europe and North America because both the Mediterranean season, which is mainly Spain and Italy, and the American one, ended earlier than expected. This added more pressure than usual on Peru and Brazil, which also had some delays in their harvests. Delays in the harvest, together with complications in international transport, have caused a drop in the volume of grapes in Spain originally expected for November that has been especially dramatic in the last two weeks.
Supermarkets had severe shortages and often the prices were sky high. Importers have been also dealing with uncertainty in delivery times, which makes stock planning difficult and can negatively affect sales during a critical period for the sector. Given the situation, the UK, the biggest market in the European continent, has imported via airfreight high volumes of Namibian grapes at the very start of its season to ensure their assortment, which left lower volumes for the rest of European countries. On the other hand South Africa pushed an earlier start of its season with high prices. In the coming weeks there will be more supply available and it won't be as chaotic as November, but prices will remain high. Many importers worked hard to make sure they will have enough supply for their clients, some have even paid too high prices that will result in no profits.
France: Last grapes from Spain and Italy still on the market
The main grape varieties on the market are still coming from Italy (Red Globe), Italia having finished, and Spain (Aledo). If the harvest has already finished, the grapes available are stored grapes, particularly for Spain, which will be sending out its stocks until Christmas. Off-season grapes from Peru will begin in a few days' time, with volumes already present here and there, and set to increase in the coming weeks. Prices are high and demand is strong.
Next week's topic: Pears