Prices are picking up on avocados. “We’re seeing prices slowly increase from the beginning of the year,” says Paul J. Maglio of Maglio Companies, who notes pricing is steady. “They have increased by about $10/carton since the start of January. They will probably keep climbing a few more dollars as we go into March, April and May transition crop. Then it will probably hit a summertime low like it normally does.”
Supplies of avocados this year are steadier and ampler than last year when Mexico saw an early end to its normal bloom season for the fruit. Mexico generally can go through April but last year it finished up at the end of January. “That hurt the early market for avocados and it didn’t get back to normal until June or July when the California crop kicked in and helped with the demand,” says Maglio.
That normal season is the one that’s finishing up now as the season moves into transition before the Flora Loca crop becomes available for the summer months.
Growing regions
While 90-95 percent of the avocado imports currently come from Mexico, there is some Chilean imported fruit right now as well. Estimates are it’s approximately five percent of supplies while Peruvian avocados make up the rest. “That’s the current mix and it will probably stay the same until we get into that late May-early June time period when California starts and Peruvian supplies kick in as well,” he says.
As for demand, it’s good. “There’s decent post-Super Bowl demand for avocados right now,” says Maglio. “While everyone normally gears up to eat healthy in January, avocado consumers gear up to eat healthy in February so demand is stronger now than in January.”
Sizing and pricing
Over the next few weeks as the transitional crop comes on, the largest fruit will be harvested first and the larger sizes will likely increase in price while the smaller sizes will only slightly increase given there will be less demand for smaller fruit. “The larger sizes will go up $5-$10/box over the course of the next month. It will stay steady on those prices then move into the high $30s/low $40s almost to the point where you’re hitting $1/piece of fruit on the FOB,” he says. That should start coming back down by late April into early May when there will be some relief and then a larger drop will happen in June and push pricing back into the middle to upper $20s.
Looking ahead, avocados continue to grow in consumption and are headed to become the second most popular tropical fruit in the world by 2030. “Everything is on track to be pretty normal which is nice given we’re having weather patterns in the U.S. that seem to be very sporadic,” says Maglio. “As long as that maintains, we’re on track for a steady year with our five percent growth year over year on volume imported into the U.S. That’s how it’s been trending and will continue to trend over the next 10 years.”
For more information:
Paul J. Maglio
Maglio Companies
Tel: +1 (414) 906-8800
[email protected]
https://www.maglioproduce.com/