During the initial six months of 2024, the maritime industry witnessed the delivery of 264 new vessels, amassing a total capacity of 1.6 million TEU, marking a notable increase from the previous year. This surge in deliveries has kept the recycling of ships to a minimum, with only 36 vessels, totalling 51k TEU, being recycled due to robust cargo volume growth and the redirection of shipping routes via the Cape of Good Hope.
Despite this influx, shipowners have not halted their procurement of new vessels, with 63 ships ordered within the year, pushing the order book-to-fleet ratio to 19%. The future looks equally busy, with orders placed for delivery stretching into 2028, and an annual average of 1.5 million TEU expected between 2025 and 2027. The 12k-17k TEU segment has seen the most rapid expansion, now representing 22% of the container fleet's capacity and contributing significantly to its growth.
This segment, which was pivotal in the growth during 2022 and 2023, is set to continue its dominance, comprising over 50% of the capacity on order. In contrast, ships larger than 17k TEU, which led growth from 2015 to 2021, now constitute a smaller portion of the order book, as the operational constraints of these larger vessels limit their utility to specific trade lanes between Asia and Europe.
With the container fleet's capacity expected to surpass 30 million TEU by the end of 2024, and an additional 4.3 million TEU anticipated from the current order book by the end of 2027, the industry may see an uptick in ship recycling to balance the fleet growth, especially if traditional routes through the Red Sea and the Suez Canal become viable again.
Source: bimco.org