The Durban-based Citrus Growers Association of South Africa has revised its 2024 citrus export forecast downwards to 162.3 million 15-kg cartons, a decrease from the previous year's record of 165.1 million cartons. This adjustment reflects a 1.8% drop from a late July estimate and a 10.6% decrease from the initial forecast of 181.7 million cartons. The revision is attributed to adverse weather conditions affecting key citrus-producing regions in South Africa, impacting the availability and price of oranges and naartjies domestically.
South Africa, ranking as the second-largest citrus exporter globally, has experienced a surge in local orange prices by 118% month-on-month due to reduced supply. This price hike is also influenced by a shift towards the juice market by producers, driven by higher global juice prices following crop failures in Brazil and Florida. Despite these challenges, the citrus sector remains a vital component of South Africa's economy, contributing significant export revenue and offering potential for growth.
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Weather anomalies, including frost in Limpopo, floods in Citrusdal, and strong winds in the Eastern Cape, have compounded the sector's challenges. Adjustments in production forecasts include an increase in navel oranges by half a million cartons, while Valencia oranges and mandarins saw reductions of 1.6 million and 700,000 cartons, respectively. The Citrus Growers Association's CEO, Justin Chadwick, and FNB's Senior Agricultural Economist, Paul Makube, have both highlighted the impact of these adjustments on the market and prices.
Source: dailymaverick.co.za