The supply of grapes from California looks to be varied depending on who you talk to. "All the shippers are in a different situation in terms of volume and availability at this time of the California table grape season," says CJ Buxman of Sunny Cal Farms.
Buxman believes California grape volume will probably land in the lower 80 million boxes, primarily due to weather.
To start with, California grape production is down 10-15 percent from the initial California Table Grape Commission estimate of 94.4 million boxes. "Overall though we'll probably land in the lower 80 million boxes, primarily due to weather," says Buxman.
This follows extreme heat in July and then triple-digit heat the first week of October. "The big question everyone is wondering is can the industry make it to Thanksgiving? This is where the variability amongst shippers comes into play with some saying they will be able to make it while others say they can't."
Following the heat, the pack-outs are very low at the moment. "Though if you look at the storage reports, they show there are 10 million boxes in storage compared to six million boxes this time last year. That means shippers are preparing to try and extend the season," says Buxman, saying this began following lower pack-outs that started in August already, prompting the decision to move fruit into storage across the industry.
Grape demand and supply?
As for demand, it outweighs the supply on black grapes given many growers have over the years taken out the late Autumn Royal variety. (Buxman says in 2020-2022, the California Table Grape Commission reported that in the three-year average, red and green grapes represented 90 percent of the market with the balance being black grapes and other specialty varieties.) Green grapes in general were about two weeks early this year and subsequently, are seeing a 10 percent lower packout which is making demand also outweigh supply for green grapes. Demand is good for red grapes and supply is still good and those will go longer this season for most shippers.
"The big question everyone is wondering is can the industry make it to Thanksgiving?" says Buxman.
Looking ahead, another question hangs in the air about the role or impact of imports–particularly Chilean imports. In the summer, a Systems Approach protocol was approved for Chilean grape imports, which generally begins in December into the U.S. and it's more recently a decision that is being challenged by a lawsuit from several California grape growers.
However, not everyone feels the same way about the decision. "Until this point, Chilean organic grapes needed to be fumigated and that ruled out any Chilean organic imports. However, with the systems approach, it really opens the possibility for organic imports," says Buxman.
For more information:
CJ Buxman
Sunny Cal Farms
Tel: +1 (559) 270-2287
[email protected]
https://www.sunnycalfarms.com/