Where does Washington's apple industry stand at the beginning of 2025? "The state's crop has demonstrated resilience despite the challenges posed by weather patterns during the 2024 growing season," says Randy Hartmann with Pacificpro Sales. Contrary to initial estimates, total volume is only slightly below last season and above the five-year average for the second year in a row. The total crop is estimated to be around 135 million boxes, up eight percent from the original projection of 125 million boxes. Most varieties are very similar in volume compared to last season, except for Honeycrisp, which saw a significant decrease this season.
Top 5 varieties
The top five varieties by volume include Gala, Red Delicious, Granny Smith, Fuji, and Honeycrisp. Out of these five, Gala, Granny Smith, Fuji, and Honeycrisp have shown robust quality and strong market demand. This has resulted in pricing being higher compared to last season during the first marketing quarter (Oct. through Dec.). The Honeycrisp variety is the exception in terms of volume this season, experiencing a volume decrease of nearly 32 percent due to growing and overall market conditions. This has resulted in tight supplies across the manifest and pricing levels that are nearly two times last season's average.
Big jump on Cosmic Crisp
While the top five varieties are unchanged from last year, a big increase was noticed in Washington's newest, broadly grown variety Cosmic Crisp. The volume of this apple variety is projected to be 12 million cases this season, up 70 percent from last season as new trees continue to come into production. With this production increase, Cosmic Crisp solidly moves into the 6th spot of largest varieties.
Is there potential for club varieties to enter the top 5 at some point? "I don't expect to see any club varieties to enter the top 5 because only certain growers are allowed to grow club varieties and they are usually marketed by only one or two companies," commented Hartmann. This dynamic will always limit the club varieties' total crop size compared to the more broadly grown, non-trademarked conventional varieties. "That is in line with the goal of the club variety, creating an exclusive component to it." While Cosmic Crisp is a managed variety, it is not considered a club variety, increasing the chance for this variety to enter the top 5 in the coming years.
Competition in produce department
Washington State offers a large selection of apple varieties. With consumers desiring a broader, more diverse offering of all produce items and shelf space being finite, it continues to be challenging for apples to maintain their retail footprint. "For new varieties in particular, it is difficult to find space and market penetration in an already packed produce department." This is compounded by the growth in organic apples, fighting for the same shelf space with conventional apples.
Strong demand for organic apples
Organic apple acreage continues to expand with organic categories now representing nearly 16 percent of the total Washington apple crop. All in all, the state grows 90 percent of all organic apples grown in the United States. "While the segment continues to grow, availability remains tight due to increasing retail and overall consumer demand, which continues to outpace new plantings," Hartmann said.
Pricing up
On average, pricing is up from last season with Honeycrisp witnessing the biggest jump due to the smaller crop size. In addition, premium varieties are commanding higher prices, especially in retail sizes of 88ct. and larger. "However, it is unclear how the upwards revised total crop size estimate will impact pricing in the coming months as other factors come into play as well." Export demand and supplies in other growing regions for the remainder of the 2024-25 crop will play a role. While export volumes have faced some headwinds due to logistical disruptions, demand from Asia, Mexico, South America and the Middle East has remained consistent, driven by preference for premium quality.
"From a grower's perspective, higher prices are desirable as they are feeling the pinch of increased input and labor costs, resulting in decreased margins. From the consumer view however, higher prices aren't ideal as it could impact demand during a time of inflationary pressures on all groceries."
Outlook for 2025
"As we move into 2025, the Washington apple industry is well positioned to capitalize on its reputation for quality and innovation," shared Hartmann. "Whether it is through deepening domestic market penetration, continuing to embrace sustainable growing practices, or the production of new, highly desirable varieties with unique flavor profiles, the future remains bright for Washington apples," he finished.
For more information:
Randy Hartmann
Pacificpro Sales
Tel: (+1) 425-885-7200
randyh@pacprosales.com
www.pacificprosales.com