The global apple market is undergoing significant shifts, marked by varied production levels, evolving consumer preferences, and fluctuating trade dynamics. In China, the approach of the Lunar New Year has highlighted slower domestic sales and a growing demand for smaller-sized apples in export markets like Nepal and Vietnam. Meanwhile, South Africa's apple industry is capitalizing on favorable weather, with a 5% increase in exports projected this season, particularly to emerging markets in Africa and Asia. Across the Pacific, Washington state in the United States has reported an 8% rise in apple yields, driven by organic growth and sustainability trends. Similarly, New Zealand is rebounding from a challenging 2023, with apple exports expected to reach their highest levels since 2020.
European apple markets are navigating unique challenges and opportunities. In Poland, severe frost and hailstorms caused a 13.1% decline in production, but exports to Egypt are rebounding thanks to improved trade conditions. Italy's output has risen by 8%, bolstered by a 13% resurgence in organic apple production. Conversely, Austria's Styrian region has faced up to 60% harvest losses, and Switzerland is reporting a 12% drop in organic apple sales. Despite regional variations, stable pricing and robust demand have supported markets in Germany, France, and Spain. With production dynamics and trade routes evolving, the global apple industry reflects the interplay of environmental factors, consumer trends, and economic shifts.
China: Slower sales, smaller-sized exports
As the Chinese Lunar New Year approaches, the apple market in China is experiencing slower sales and declining prices. Farmers and merchants in major apple-producing regions, such as Gansu Jingning and Qin'an, are working diligently to clear their inventories in a challenging economic environment. In Jingning, the popular red Fuji apples, valued for their stable quality and sugar content of 15-18 degrees, remain in high demand. Merchants are reporting rapid turnover as prices stabilize at more competitive levels. Similarly, Qin'an's Huaniu apples have successfully moved 90% of their stored stock, benefiting from a slight price increase driven by localized demand.
Export markets for Chinese apples demonstrate a growing preference for smaller-sized fruit, particularly in Nepal, Indonesia, Vietnam, and Thailand. Nepal, for instance, has shown a notable increase in demand for sizes such as #60, #65, and #70. Additionally, new varieties like Ruixue and Ruixiang red apples are commanding higher prices due to their limited supply and unique characteristics. However, older varieties such as yellow marshal apples are losing appeal, signaling shifting consumer preferences both domestically and internationally.
South Africa: Favourable weather boosts exports to Africa and Asia
Free State and Mpumalanga apple farms are beginning the harvest of conventional varieties after a delayed and protracted flowering season, heavy snowfall at the end of September, and an unusually acute cold snap in July.
Across the main apple-growing regions of South Africa, however, weather conditions have been more favorable, with cooler nights benefiting fruit growth and color development, remarks the deciduous fruit industry body Hortgro. The organization notes very little sunburn so far this season and predicts 51.3 million 12.5kg export cartons of apples for the coming season, a 5% increase over 2024's exports, which were 12% higher than the previous year.
"The growth in export volumes is attributed to increased production due to young orchards coming into production, higher-yielding varieties, and the recovery from the 2023 hail and flood impacts," Hortgro states in a recent press release.
The South African-bred, fully red Gala cultivar Bigbucks/Flash Gala continues to gain popularity among orchards, with its hectarage increasing by 24%, alongside growth in Royal Gala and Cripps Pink/Pink Lady blocks. "There is also a positive outlook on Cripps Red/Joya® volumes, which are anticipated to increase by 9%," the press release continues.
Exporters agree that opportunities for South African apples in Europe have diminished, with demand largely limited to Pink Lady and Braeburn in the UK. The future for South African apple exports lies in Africa and the East. Half of South Africa's apples are purchased by buyers from various African countries, excluding North Africa, where France dominates the market. There is also a notable east-west divide in varietal preferences across the continent. Growers report that Africa has been a crucial market for older varieties like Granny Smith, Top Red, and Golden Delicious, although East Africa also has a strong preference for Pink Lady.
India, Bangladesh, and Vietnam play significant roles in South African apple exports, while Thailand recently reopened its market for South African apples. However, populous countries like Indonesia allow imports of South African pears but not apples.
Through Controlled Atmosphere (CA) storage, apples are preserved right up to the following season. Domestically, apples trade for R14.58 (0.76 euro)/kg at the municipal market level. Apples have become more expensive, reflecting the trend of food price inflation. Over the past two seasons, late-season CA apples have traded at R4 (0.2 euro) to R6 (0.3 euro)/kg higher than during similar periods in 2021 and 2022.
North America: Washington's bumper harvest and organic growth
The total apple crop in Washington, the largest apple-growing state in the U.S., is estimated to be around 135 million boxes, up eight percent from the original projection of 125 million boxes. The top five varieties by volume include Gala, Red Delicious, Granny Smith, Fuji, and Honeycrisp. Among all Washington-grown varieties, Honeycrisp is the only one experiencing a significant decrease in volume this season, down by about 32 percent. As a result, Honeycrisp prices are nearly twice last season's average. The biggest increase in volume comes from the newest broadly grown variety, Cosmic Crisp, which now ranks 6th. From an organic perspective, this category represents nearly 16 percent of the total Washington crop and 90 percent of all organic apples grown in the country. Overall demand for the organic category is strong and outpaces new organic plantings. On average, pricing is up from last season.
The Midwest and the East are smaller growing regions but are also experiencing a smaller Honeycrisp crop and increased pricing. In Michigan, Golden Delicious volume is down substantially due to strong processing demand early in the season.
In general, the industry is concerned about potential tariffs. Some varieties, like Red Delicious, are less favored in the domestic market but are popular with consumers in other parts of the world. If tariffs were to be (re-)imposed, they could potentially cause significant damage. Not only are exports to Asia critical for the U.S. industry, but Latin America is also a key market.
New Zealand: Recovery and early harvest target Asian markets
New Zealand has two major apple-growing regions, Hawke's Bay in the North Island and Nelson in the South Island, which account for approximately 88% of the production. The remainder is spread across Otago, Gisborne, Waikato, and Wairarapa.
The New Zealand apple industry seems to have recovered well from a couple of tough years of bad weather and Cyclone Gabrielle, which caused major destruction just as the 2023 apple season was beginning. Excellent warm growing conditions in spring have indicated the crop will be 5–7 days earlier than last season. There have been a few cool nights through summer, which is great for color development, and with the right level of rainfall, this should ensure good fruit size—positive news from a growing perspective.
Many growers focus on exclusive varieties aimed at the Asian market, particularly China. These tend to be fully red in color and have high brix levels, although some yellow varieties are also gaining popularity in Asia. In addition to the licensed varieties, New Zealand produces all of the traditional ones.
According to a USDA report published in November 2024, FAS/Wellington forecasts apple production in the 2024/2025 MY to be 560,000 metric tons (MT). FAS/Wellington also forecasts strong exports in the 2024/2025 MY at 380,000 MT, which, if realized, would be the highest since 2020. Exports are expected to focus on Asian markets such as Vietnam and China, as well as the United States and the United Kingdom, in the foreseeable future. India is projected to be a growing market for New Zealand exporters as apple consumption continues to rise with population growth and increasing demand for healthier foods.
This season's estimate from New Zealand Apples and Pears has not yet been released, but last year New Zealand exported 18.9 million TCEs (tray carton equivalents). This was 11% down on the estimate at the start of the season, with the reduction attributed to smaller-than-expected fruit size.
Netherlands: Strong Elstar sales amid market challenges
The Dutch apple market continues to exhibit resilience, with Elstar apples maintaining steady sales and consistent pricing. This popular variety remains a staple for both domestic and international markets, demonstrating the adaptability of Dutch producers to changing demands. However, the spot market for Jonagold apples has proven less favorable, reflecting a divergence in consumer preferences and market trends.
The upcoming Fruit Logistica trade fair holds the potential to impact market dynamics, as it often serves as a platform for forging new trade partnerships and exploring innovative marketing strategies. Dutch exporters remain cautiously optimistic, recognizing the importance of strategic engagement to sustain growth.
Germany: Stable prices amid regional variations
Germany's apple market enjoys a reputation for stability, with consistent domestic sales and a broad array of varieties available to consumers. Local varieties such as Elstar, Braeburn, and Boskoop complement imported favorites like Pink Lady and Granny Smith, offering consumers a wide selection throughout the season.
Regional variations in production persist, with northern Germany experiencing a 20-25% reduction in output due to adverse weather, while the southern Lake Constance region has reported a 13% increase. Despite these discrepancies, the market has managed to maintain stable prices, supported by reliable demand during the autumn and winter months.
Spain: Apple prices rise, with golden and gala varieties seeing increases
The Spanish market is currently experiencing a subdued demand for local apples, despite the relatively low stock levels which contribute to market equilibrium. Prices offered by the processing industry have consistently been higher compared to the previous year since the season's start. On the whole, apple prices, both at the point of origin and upon departure from packing stations, have maintained a slight increase over the previous year's average.
The exception lies with the Fuji apple at its origin, which is priced 1.4% lower. Notably, at the point of origin, the Golden apple has seen a price increase of 7.6%, while the Fuji apple's price has remained stable. The only decrease at this stage is observed in the Gala apple, with a 1.2% drop. Prices for packed apples, however, have shown a marked increase for both Golden and Gala varieties.
Italy: Production growth and a rebound in organic apples
Italian apple production has seen a significant increase, reaching 2,350,629 tons, marking an 8% growth compared to the previous year. Fresh market production has also risen by 7%, totaling 2,018,378 tons. December sales were exceptionally strong, surpassing figures from the previous year and setting a positive outlook for the season despite challenges posed by climate change and geopolitical instability. Organic apple production in Italy has rebounded by 13% from a historic low in 2023, reaching 189,993 tons, with optimism for a stable and regular season ahead in the organic segment. Regionally, South Tyrol's production increased by 3% to 1,041,064 tons, while Trentino experienced a slight 2% decrease to 477,771 tons. Piedmont saw a significant 17% increase in production, reaching 295,173 tons. Veneto's production rebounded with a 43% increase after a historic low last year due to frost and hail. Emilia-Romagna reported a 14% growth in production, while Friuli-Venezia Giulia showed a stable 5% increase. Lombardy, however, faced a 16% decrease compared to the previous year.
In terms of varieties, Golden Delicious production dropped by 6%, with stocks as of January 1 being 8% lower than the previous year and 4% below the five-year average. Red Delicious production recovered by 14% from a historic low in 2023, reaching 199,256 tons. Gala production remained consistent with previous years, with stocks 1% lower than in 2023. Fuji apples saw a 4% increase in production to 162,666 tons, with stocks 6% below the five-year average. The club varieties group showed a growth trend, with production exceeding 262,000 tons, marking a 17% increase from the previous year. Sales have been strong since the season's start, with a regular and significant decrease in stock for the fresh market, especially for Golden Delicious, which saw a 21% increase in sales compared to the same period last year. Gala apples also performed well, with December sales 25% higher than the five-year average. Exports to EU markets have started smoothly, contrasting with the more complex global logistics situation, yet still showing strong interest and satisfaction.
According to YouGov data, apples were purchased by 83% of Italian households in the year ending November 2024, confirming their status as the most popular fruit in Italian food culture. On average, apples are consistently bought 13 times a year by these households, with March being the peak month, attracting over 13 million purchasing families. Supermarkets and discount stores are the preferred channels for these purchases, both of which have experienced steady growth over the past two years.
Austria: Substantial harvest losses in Styrian orchards
The Styrian apple industry in Austria has faced a challenging year, with harvest losses of up to 60% due to unfavorable weather. In response, growers have prioritized domestic markets and key export partners, ensuring a more targeted approach to distribution. The reduced harvest has also led to a higher proportion of apples being directed toward industrial use.
Switzerland: Decline in organic apple sales
Switzerland has reported a decline in organic apple sales, with November figures showing a 12% drop compared to the same period last year. Over the September-November period, sales were the lowest in three years, indicating waning consumer interest in organic apples within the domestic market.
France: Steady prices amid resurgent sales
France's apple market experienced a slow start this season but saw improved sales flow in December due to heightened activity at sales outlets and a citrus shortage. Stable prices and consistent demand have provided a positive outlook for the current campaign, with potential supply shortages of two-tone varieties anticipated to further invigorate the market.
Poland: Apple prices rise, production drops, and exports to Egypt rebound
Poland's apple prices started the 2024 season higher than the previous year, with August prices reaching €69 per 100 kilograms, up from €57 in 2023. This upward trend continued through the early months, with November prices matching August's levels, also at €69 per 100 kilograms. Despite the price increase, Polish apple orchards faced significant challenges, including severe frost damage in late April and May, which caused extensive flower bud losses, followed by hailstorms in late May. These weather-related setbacks contributed to a 13.1% year-on-year decline in apple production, which totaled nearly 3.4 million tonnes in 2024. However, this figure still surpassed the World Apple and Pear Association's earlier forecast of 3.2 million tonnes.
Poland's apple concentrate production has also been impacted, with projections for the 2024/25 marketing year reaching 220,000 tonnes, a decrease from 255,000 tonnes in the previous year. The Expana Benchmark Price (EBP) for high-acidity apple juice saw a significant 43.2% increase year-on-year, reaching €2,650 per metric tonne as of December 31. Medium-acidity apple juice, easier to source within the EU, also experienced a 22.5% price hike, standing at €2,400 per metric tonne. Market players have reported limited trading activity as buyers remain well-stocked for the short term, though offers for high-acidity and medium-acidity juice are comparable at €2,600 and €2,400 per metric tonne, respectively.
Polish apple exports to Egypt are also gaining momentum. According to the owner of a Polish apple exporter, the stabilization of the Egyptian currency has facilitated a recovery in trade relations between the two countries. While the export market is showing growth, challenges remain in sourcing high-quality apples and finding apples of the desired sizes. Despite these obstacles, the owner expressed optimism, noting that the improved trade environment with Egypt has created more opportunities to develop exports and strengthen Poland's position in this key market.
Israel: Reduced production and increased imports
Israel's apple industry faces significant challenges, including a decline in local production due to uprooted orchards and elevated costs. Imports now account for a substantial portion of the 120,000-tonne annual consumption, reflecting the country's reliance on external suppliers. Local growers are working on developing new club varieties, with very little exports.
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