A sense of unease was evident at the annual PEI Potato Conference in February as Victoria Stamper, general manager of the United Potato Growers of Canada, discussed the impending 25% tariff on Canadian potato exports to the U.S. The tariffs, set to take effect on April 2, could disrupt fresh table stock and frozen potato exports from Canada to the United States.
Stamper remarked, "It's the elephant in the room. The big question I get from growers is: will he or won't he? I wish I could give you a clear answer, but we all know President Trump's decision-making can be erratic. What we can do is focus on what we can control—coming together as an industry, standing united, and working to improve our position."
The PEI Potato Board and other industry representatives are lobbying U.S. lawmakers to prevent the tariffs, arguing they would affect both Canadian growers and U.S. supply chains. With the deadline approaching, PEI growers face uncertainty as they prepare for planting season.
The tariffs coincide with U.S. growers dealing with trade issues, particularly with Mexico. Stamper noted, "If Mexico closes or slows its market to U.S. potatoes, will that back up supply into the U.S. and squeeze out Canadian shipments? It's certainly a possibility."
Colorado's potato movement remains swift, though Idaho, with its market dominance, is less likely to be affected. Stamper shared, "I spoke with growers at the Colorado potato conference. They're concerned, but there's been no action yet—no change in planting intentions."
Idaho's independence adds to the unpredictability. Stamper stated, "They do what they need to do. After two years of shortages, they're under pressure to regain market share."
Concerns exist about U.S. growers replacing Canadian potatoes in the Northeast market if tariffs are enforced. Stamper commented, "I don't see it happening. Idaho already services the Northeast. It's not new for them, and the additional market share wouldn't significantly impact their total production."
Customs paperwork presents another challenge, with importers responsible for tariffs. Stamper warned, "Customs brokerage firms will no longer cover tariff costs up front and collect later. The 25% tariff means millions of dollars in duties."
As planting season nears, PEI growers face tough decisions. Stamper asked, "How do we decide what our planting intentions are? We don't know if the tariffs are going to be there."
Despite uncertainties, the Canadian dollar's exchange rate and rising freight costs for Idaho shipments could favor Canadian potatoes. Stamper emphasized industry efforts on data collection, communication, and collaboration to mitigate risks.
U.S. industry groups, including the National Potato Council, oppose the tariffs, recognizing potential damage. As the decision on tariffs looms, growers must balance optimism with planning. Stamper concluded, "We have to stay prepared, adapt where we can, and hope for the best."
Source: Island Farmer