Orange production in São Paulo and the Triângulo and Southwest regions of Minas Gerais reached 230.87 million 40.8-kilogram boxes for the 2024/25 season, marking a nearly 25% reduction from the previous season. This output is the second-lowest in 37 years, according to the Fund for Citrus Protection (Fundecitrus).
Fundecitrus initially projected 232.38 million boxes but revised this due to adverse weather and tree diseases, notably greening. Drought and high temperatures affected fruit development, prompting an early harvest before the rainy season. Consequently, much of the crop was harvested under dry conditions, resulting in lighter fruit.
Greening, a bacterial disease with no known cure, significantly impacted production. However, a substantial fourth flowering mitigated further decline. "Although forecasts had already indicated below-average rainfall during fruit development, the impact of weather conditions from May to August 2024 was much more severe than anticipated. Rainfall was 31% below expectations, while maximum temperatures were 3 to 4 degrees Celsius above historical averages," said Fundecitrus Executive Director Juliano Ayres.
The average orange weight was 159 grams, with the first three flowerings averaging 162 grams and the fourth at 146 grams. The early harvest reduced fruit drop rates, with an average drop rate across the citrus belt at 17.8%, resulting in an estimated 50 million boxes lost.
Looking forward, the 2025/26 season is expected to see a production rebound. Rabobank forecasts between 260 million and 300 million boxes, while the U.S. Department of Agriculture estimates 320 million boxes. Fundecitrus will release its forecast on May 9.
Source: Agribusiness