Avocado growers in Michoacán Mexico started harvesting again Wednesday after a strike which saw no fruit being harvested or crossing into the US since late October. A resolution to the strike was reached on Tuesday and fruit is expected to be crossing the border again starting either today or tomorrow. US shippers are relieved as it looked as though stores would run out of Mexican avocados by Thanksgiving. Typically, fruit inventories are maintained at a level that would ensure sufficient stock for around two weeks.
According to the Hass Avocado Board, Mexico was shipping 40 million pounds of avocados per week into the US at this time last year, meaning that as the strike spanned for more than two weeks, there is likely a shortfall of close to 100 million pounds in the US market, although current actual numbers are unclear. The picture is clear though and most sources say that consumers can expect Mexican avocados to be in very short supply over the next several weeks, with only relatively meager volume from regions like Chile attempting to fill the void.
Denise Junqueiro from Mission Produce said that the company does source avocados from other regions in Central and South America at this time of year, however the vast majority are sourced from Mexico. Volume and quality are there, it's just that no one had been harvesting them. "There is plenty of volume in Mexico, and now that the strike has ended, we will hopefully see fruit crossing the border again by the end of the week," Junqueiro said. "It is currently the rainy season, so quality has been ok. But some shippers have decided to skip the ripening process for now in order to expedite the replenishment of inventories."
"No market"
While the strike was occurring and fruit was at a standstill, the market sat idle. The USDA has not reported a Mexican market price since the beginning of the strikes. It is highly feasible that prices will be very high once the market officially reopens, but it is unknown exactly how they will move after that.
"Until now, there really wasn't a market," Junqueiro noted. "Since no one had harvested in more than two weeks, importers were just selling off of inventory harvested before the strike. At the moment it is still too early to predict where the market will settle. The USDA has not quoted a Mexican market in two weeks."
"Demand for avocado leading into the Thanksgiving Holiday is typically pretty light, then starts to pick back up again in December," she added. "However, it is hard to say what will happen now as a consequence of the strikes."