In 2021, food-at-home prices are expected to increase between 1.0 and 2.0 percent, and food-away-from-home prices are now expected to increase between 2.5 and 3.5 percent. Despite these predicted increases, inflation for most food categories is expected to be at or below their 20-year historical averages—exceptions include nonalcoholic beverages, other foods, and fresh fruit.
Fresh fruit prices increased 0.7 percent from February to March 2021, rendering them 5.6 percent higher than in March 2020. This increase followed a 1.3-percent increase in February. Recent increases have largely been driven by the rise in apple prices of 2.7 percent from January to February and 0.9 percent between February and March.
Citrus prices and the prices of other fruits increased 9.8 percent and 4.9 percent, respectively from March 2020 to March 2021. Fresh fruit prices are now predicted to increase between 2.0 and 3.0 percent in 2021. As a result, the price of the aggregate category of fresh fruits and vegetables is now predicted to increase between 1.5 and 2.5 percent. The aggregate category of fruits and vegetables, which also includes processed fruits and vegetables, is now predicted to increase between 1.5 and 2.5 percent.
Source: ers.usda.gov