While avocado supplies are stable currently, interesting times lie ahead.
“Demand and supply are pretty even as compared to last year--there aren’t any major changes,” said Juan Escorcia of Escagui Avocados Inc. This is what the market looks like for supplies from Mexico, which were suspended for more than a week mid-February after a US plant safety inspector in Mexico was threatened.
Escorcia says there's still a lot of fruit on the trees in Mexico, even though it's coming towards the end of the crop.
However, once the suspension was lifted, avocado shipments started back up again quickly. “Shipments ramped back up and they maybe even started loading a little extra to catch up on the inventory,” said Escorcia. “Like with COVID and how suddenly paper and household products were hard to find, retailers were scared of running out of inventory so they started buying like crazy from importers. They were afraid they wouldn’t have inventory for the next little while and didn’t know what would happen.” In turn, he said, that left importers and distributors lacking product and they needed to catch back up.
Meanwhile consumption of avocados continues growing. “Every year we’re seeing a lot more consumption overall--not just the U.S. But Japan, Canada, our national market. However the supply of fruit isn’t more than last year which is why you’re seeing the price increases,” he says.
Old versus new crop
Indeed, as Mexico finishes up with its existing crop, Escorcia notes price increases will likely be seen for the next two months. “Even though there’s still a lot of fruit on the trees, we’re towards the end of the crop and waiting for the new crop to be ready which will be in May. We have the volumes we need,” he says.
Escorcia says inspections by USDA and Mexican agencies of Jalisco's avocado orchards have begun and soon they will inspect packing houses too.
Looking ahead, interesting times await in how supplies will shape up. Peru begins picking or shipping at the beginning of May and logistics influences supply levels and pricing. Avocados from Peru to the U.S. for example takes six to seven days while it’s seven to 10 days to Europe (depending on the port) and 30 days to Japan. “And every year Peru continues to increase its volumes,” says Escorcia.
And while until now Mexican avocados shipping into the U.S. have historically come from Michoacan only, the USDA recent approval to welcome avocados from a second Mexican state, Jalisco, also changes things, even though its volumes, at 10 percent of production out of Mexico, don’t resemble Michoacan’s volumes. “There are inspections of orchards that have begun from USDA and Mexican agencies and they soon will begin inspecting packing houses too. So the expectation is in May, we will see the first shipments out of Jalisco into the U.S.,” says Escorcia. “There are a lot of moving pieces in the upcoming months and we’re excited to see how things will move from Mexico.”
For more information:
Juan Escorcia
Escagui Avocados Inc.
Tel: +1 (619) 365 7694
[email protected]
www.avocadosaguirre.com