A new report by Second Harvest, a Canadian food rescue organization, outlines the potential impacts of proposed U.S. tariffs on Canada's food supply chain. Titled The Cost of Conflict: Tariffs and Food Insecurity, the report was produced by the StrategyCorp Institute of Public Policy and Economy. It examines how tariffs could affect every stage of the supply chain, leading to higher consumer prices, reduced food availability, and increased pressure on non-profit food support services.
According to the report, at least 8.7 million Canadians already experience food insecurity, and many are turning to non-profit organizations for assistance for the first time. Additional economic disruption from new tariffs could make essential items less affordable, pushing even more people to rely on food charities that are already struggling to meet growing demand.
The report notes that over 60 percent of Canada's greenhouse vegetables are exported, with 99.5 percent going to the United States. Losing access to this market would be a significant blow to greenhouse operations, many of which operate on narrow margins. In the potato sector, more than 90 percent of Canadian exports—across fresh, seed, and frozen varieties—are destined for the U.S. Potatoes represent New Brunswick's most valuable agricultural product.
For Canadian consumers, the financial impact could be substantial. The report suggests household food costs could rise by as much as $1,900 per year. The price of common staples, such as bread, could increase from around $3.50 to $5.00. Rising costs and potential job losses linked to disrupted trade may also lead to higher unemployment rates, potentially reaching 8 percent. This, in turn, could drive more people to seek support from food relief organizations.
The report highlights the added strain on food charities, which may face reduced donations and increased transportation costs, making it more difficult to respond to rising demand. Lori Nikkel, CEO of Second Harvest, described the potential situation as a growing concern, emphasizing that the proposed tariffs could have wide-ranging effects—from food producers and retailers to households that depend on food assistance.
While the report is focused on potential outcomes, it underscores the interconnectedness of trade policy and food security, raising questions about how future trade decisions could shape access to food across Canada.
For more information:
Giao Chau
Second Harvest
Tel: +1 416 408 2594
Email: giaoc@secondharvest.ca
www.secondharvest.ca