The 2022-2023 Florida all orange forecast released by the USDA Agricultural Statistics Board is 16.1 million boxes, increased 100,000 boxes from the February forecast. If realized, this will be 61 percent less than last season’s final production. The forecast consists of 6.10 million boxes of non-Valencia oranges (early, mid-season, and Navel varieties) and 10.0 million boxes of Valencia oranges. A 9-year regression has been used for comparison purposes. All references to “average”, “minimum”, and “maximum” refer to the previous 10 seasons, excluding the 2017-2018 season, which was affected by Hurricane Irma. Average fruit per tree includes both regular and first late bloom.
Non-Valencia oranges 6.10 mln boxes
The forecast of non-Valencia production is increased by 100,000 boxes to 6.10 million boxes. The Row Count survey conducted February 22-23, 2023, showed 94 percent of the early and mid-season non-Valencia rows, excluding Navels, are harvested. Estimated utilization for non-Valencia oranges (including Navels) to March 1, with an allocation for non-certified fruit, is 6.09 million boxes. The Navel forecast, included in the non-Valencia portion of the forecast is 240,000 boxes.
Valencia oranges 10.0 mln boxes
The forecast of Valencia production is unchanged from the February forecast and remains at 10.0 million boxes. Current fruit size is below the minimum and is projected to be below the minimum at harvest, requiring 277 pieces to fill a 90-pound box. Current droppage is above the maximum and projected to be above the maximum at harvest. Harvest of Valencia oranges is still in the early stages.
All grapefruit 1.60 mln boxes
The forecast of all grapefruit production is increased 100,000 from February to 1.60 million boxes. The red grapefruit forecast is increased to 1.44 million boxes. The white grapefruit forecast is lowered 20,000 boxes to 160,000 boxes. The Row Count survey conducted February 22-23, 2023, indicated 72 percent of grapefruit rows are harvested. Estimated utilization to March 1 for all grapefruit, with an allocation for non-certified fruit 1.56 million boxes.
Tangerines and tangelos 500,000 boxes
The forecast for tangerines and tangelos is unchanged from the February forecast and is 500,000 boxes, 33 percent less than last season’s utilization of 750,000 boxes. This forecast number includes all certified tangerine and tangelo varieties.
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Source: nass.usda.gov