Chile’s cherry crop has been impacted by rains. “It basically destroyed the November fruit and as a result, the market is very tight,” says a cherry exporter. This time of year, about 100-200 pallets per day are usually shipped to China – the country’s main cherry market – by air. However, volume has been down to about four or five pallets per day as a result of very limited availability. Cherry trees that are producing now have been impacted twice this season as they already saw rain during the bloom stage.
While the November fruit has been lost to the rains, December shipments are expected to be more normal. “December fruit was still too green when last week’s rains hit,” the exporter commented. What’s also helpful is that the country is very stretched out. “When rains hit the early fruit in the North, the fruit in the South may not necessarily receive much precipitation.”
Chinese New Year drives up price
As a result of decreased volume, not a lot of fruit is expected to be shipped outside of China this season. “Up until Chinese New Year on February 10, there is no single market that will pay as much for cherries as China does. Until then, prices are expected to stay relatively high.” At the moment, the selling price of a 5 kg. box of Santina cherries, 30-42 mm. diameter is up to $165 in China. “This is a normal price for the first few days of the season, but I’ve never seen prices this high this late,” the exporter said. The US and European markets can never match these prices and as a result, virtually all fruit is expected to be shipped to China this season. “In a normal year, Chile ships 70 to 80 percent of its cherries to China, but that number is expected to be closer to 85 or 90 percent this season.”
While expectations are for prices to stay high, the quality of the fruit plays an important role. “Is the fruit able to handle a 30-day transit time once the shipment of ocean containers starts in December?” If it isn’t, prices may come down. Additionally, the Chinese market is very supply and demand driven. “It’s a mercurial market that reacts very quickly. As soon as demand slows, prices tend to drop. Last year, Chinese New Year was celebrated early, and Chilean shippers were pressured to find other markets after the Chinese holiday as prices dropped to $10/box.
The president of Frutas de Chile (formerly known as ASOEX), Iván Marambio, commented that the Chilean fruit industry is evaluating the situation in the fields. “Climate change and the El Niño phenomenon are putting agriculture in Chile and the world to the test. It is never good to have rain during harvest times, as is the case with fruits such as cherries and blueberries, or to have rainfall during flowering periods, as is the case with our table grapes in the central-southern part of the country. Technical teams are carrying out the necessary evaluations, and as soon as we have more information, we will share it,” Marambio stated.