The combination of drought, water irrigation limitations and abnormally high temperatures during flowering and fruit-setting phases have limited the EU’s citrus production potential in MY 2023/24, which is projected to stay at similar levels as the also short MY 2022/23 crop. The increase in the EU’s lemon and grapefruit production offsets the reduction registered in oranges, mandarins, and tangerines output. Imports continue to gain share at the expense of domestic production in a context of inflation-driven weak demand.
In MY 2023/24, the total EU production of citrus is projected to amount to 9.9 million MT, very similar to the previous marketing year’s levels but below the historical production average. However, the stability projected in the EU’s total citrus production hides divergent trends among the different citrus categories. Oranges and mandarins/tangerines, which together account for nearly 85 percent of the EU’s citrus production, register respectively a two and five percent decline. Conversely, grapefruits are anticipated to have six percent growth and, most notably, lemons are expected to have expanded production in MY 2023/24 by more than fifteen percent. The overall MY 2023/24 production reduction is expected to materialize in Spain, Greece, and Portugal, whereas Italy is projected to have a larger total citrus crop compared to the poor output registered in MY 2022/23.
In MY 2023/24, farmers across the EU continued facing increased costs ranging from energy costs (fuel and electricity) to fertilizers and plant protection products. On a positive note, higher farm-gate prices may contribute to improve producers’ margins and offset the negative impact of the second consecutive short citrus crop in the EU. Soaring fresh fruit and general food prices negatively affecting consumers’ disposable income are expected to curb consumption in the EU. Likewise, given the EU’s shorter crop projected for MY 2023/24, a smaller amount of citrus is anticipated to be devoted for processing purposes.
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Source: apps.fas.usda.gov