South African production of lemons is forecast to rise by 10 percent in MY 2023/24 on sufficient irrigation and greater input investments by producers, while tangerine/mandarins production is forecast to increase by 4 percent. The remaining citrus types are expected to drop slightly, grapefruit by 5 percent and oranges by 1 percent due to a reduction in area planted as producers are less optimistic on prospects of these citrus types and are not replacing old trees. Orange juice production is forecast to drop by 3 percent on increased routing of oranges to the export market. Despite anticipation of stronger demand from export markets, the citrus industry is challenged by inefficient port operation, degrading transportation infrastructure, and ongoing pest and disease concerns that continue to hinder exports.
Duty-free exports of citrus to the United States under the African Growth Opportunity Act (AGOA) are expected to continue their strong annual growth, as the United States is considered a premium market.
Crop area
The area under orange production is forecast to reduce by 0.5 percent in MY 2023/24. Growth in orange area has been limited by an aggressive shift to soft citrus in the growing regions of the Western Cape and Limpopo provinces. New plantings are limited and appear insufficient to replace the orchards that are aging out of production.
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Source:apps.fas.usda.gov