“Valentine’s Day can’t come fast enough.” So says David Nelley of The Fresh Connection about the outlook on the strawberry market which is starting to improve.
Supply from Central Mexico has been pushed back this year. Cold wet weather delayed production, which didn’t start until late November. (In 2022, production began in October.) Then, the first two weeks of January saw warmer temperatures in Central Mexico which brought on production and pushed the region into peak supply, which happened last week with sizeable crossings into Texas.
Colliding with Florida
“That delayed start pushed the Central Mexican crop into a time frame where Florida is starting to come on with volume,” says Nelley. “Central Mexico will be in production for the rest of January and in pretty good supply in the first two weeks of February. There’s lovely weather down there so the fruit is strong and big. It’s just a shame that the peak volume of this good quality comes at this time.”
Then there’s also Baja Mexico, another area of production coming on although not with much volume to date. “We know that this rainstorm that hit San Diego last week and created a state of emergency also hit Baja production too. This could really help sales of central Mexican strawberries into the West coast,” Nelley adds.
Another growing region, California, has also seen rains recently and it’s expected to see more this month. Its production, which is in between seasons, is minimal and delayed.
Demand strengthening
As for demand, growers and shippers are expected to see it pick up starting this week following a slow movement period. “There had been a lot of icy cold weather in the Midwest and East Coast and that slowed down the arrivals of fresh strawberries into distribution centers and out to stores,” says Nelley. “It also slowed the ability of shoppers to get into stores and buy strawberries.”
That said, milder weather has arrived which should help movement, as well as the anticipation of Valentine’s Day. “That will provide some activity on the demand side and help absorb the production peaking out of Central Mexico,” says Nelley. “We know the market will change as people dig out from this large volume. We’re optimistic about Valentine’s Day with good supply from central Mexico, Florida and possibly--but with a question mark--Baja.”
Pricing, which had been on the softer side last week making it a buyer’s market, is also anticipated to firm up.
For more information:
David Nelley
The Fresh Connection
Tel: (+1) 805-721-2672
david@thefreshconnection.com
www.thefreshconnection.com