The European Commission's Spring 2024 short-term agricultural outlook reveals a decrease in the 2023/24 EU orange production, with Spain being significantly affected. Adverse weather conditions have led to a projection of the lowest output in a decade, totaling approximately 5.6 million metric tons, marking a 5.4% decrease from the previous year. Consequently, there's an estimated 2.4% year-over-year increase in oranges allocated for processing. The yield for the 2023/24 season is estimated at nearly 20 tons/hectare, which is 14% below the five-year average and 6.5% below last year's figures.
This diminished availability of fresh oranges is anticipated to lead to higher prices and reduced consumption. Additionally, a significant decline in orange exports is forecasted, while the trend of increasing imports is expected to persist.
Along the EU food chain, the transmission of the decline of agricultural producer prices to processor and consumer prices still lags behind. The processor price index has been declining since April 2023, but the consumer food price index has remained at an elevated level. Among categories of food products, prices of fresh fruits and vegetables continued to increase, while others remain stable at high levels.
EU consumption of fresh apples falls as production declines
The 2023/24 EU usable production of apples is expected to decrease by 6.3% to 11.1 million t (3.6% below the 5-year average), driven by a lower harvest in the main EU producing countries (e.g. -12% year-on-year in DE, -10% in FR, -9% in PL), which is the result of an estimated reduction in the area harvested (-4% year-on-year), and unfavorable weather conditions which impacted negatively the yields and quality of the fruit. In total, 7.1 million t of apples are expected to be used for fresh consumption (-5.7% year-on-year) and 4.1 million t for processing (-5.2%). The share of apples going into processing is expected to be similar to the last marketing year.
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Source: cacitrusmutual.com