After a period of declining values, the Brazilian orange market is poised for a potential increase in prices during June. This expectation arises as processing activities ramp up, with an increasing number of companies commencing operations, thus constraining the available supply for the in natura market. Despite traditionally lower demand during colder months, the supply is anticipated to fall short of demand.
Price elevation was observed in the latter half of May, following Fundecitrus's announcement of reduced output projections. Consequently, many producers have shifted their focus from the in natura market to fulfilling industrial demand. In May, pear oranges were priced at BRL 80.22 per 40.8-kilo box, marking an 11.21% decrease from April. Despite this drop, prices remain high, propelled by a forecasted small crop and scant orange juice stocks, which have escalated industrial demand.
Concerning the Tahiti lime, its supply is expected to remain constrained in June due to lower-than-average rainfall and concerns over colder temperatures affecting fruit characteristics, potentially impacting international market acceptance. The price for Tahiti lime in May stood at BRL 32.62 per 27-kilo box, an 18.96% increase from April.
For Ponkan tangerine, a price uptick is anticipated in June, particularly in the latter half, as supply in São Paulo is expected to dwindle. Despite potentially reduced demand due to colder weather, Ponkan tangerine may serve as a viable alternative amidst higher-priced fruits, albeit with limited impact on significant price increases.
[ BRL1 = €0.17 ]
Source: cepea.esalq.usp.br