After record-breaking production last year, apple growers expect another high-performing year, according to a new report released by the U.S. Apple Association (USApple) at the organization's 129th annual Outlook Conference in Chicago.
USApple's Industry Outlook 2024 provides the most up-to-date data and analysis on U.S. and global apple production, utilization, and trade. Authored by USApple vice president of insights and analytics, Chris Gerlach, the report takes an in-depth look at the trends and forces that shape the U.S. apple industry.
The Outlook Report is based on recently released United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) estimates. After the presentation of those numbers, USApple members discussed current growing conditions to formulate a more up-to-date production estimate. The final USApple 2024/25 crop year forecast is an adjustment of the USDA numbers based on those conversations.
According to USApple's analysis, total U.S. apple production for the 2024/25 crop year (CY) will be 259,517,252 bushels. This represents a 10.1 percent decrease compared to last year's final production figure.
"Growers from across the U.S. are reporting the crop quality is excellent," said Gerlach.
These figures are more comprehensive than USDA data, which only looks at the top seven apple-producing states. USApple analyzes the production from states outside of the top seven and adds that back into USDA's figure. It also incorporates feedback from growers based on what they're seeing in the field every day.
At the varietal level, Gala is expected to retain the top spot with more than 48 million bushels produced, accounting for around 17 percent of the U.S. apple market. After Gala, rounding out the top five are Red Delicious (12.3 percent), Granny Smith (10 percent), Honeycrisp (9.8 percent), and Fuji (9.4 percent).
In general, the varieties on the rise include Honeycrisp, Pink Lady/Cripps Pink, and Cosmic Crisp®. Fuji, Rome, and "other" varieties have remained relatively consistent compared to 2019/20 production volumes. Varieties on the decline include Gala and Red Delicious.
"We still see strong Honeycrisp production, but it's tempered this year," said Gerlach. "With volumes aligning more closely with Gala and Red Delicious, we may see production levels stabilize rather than increase dramatically in the future."
According to USDA trade data, fresh apple exports totaled 46.4 million bushels in the 2023/24 CY (July to June). This is around 14 million bushels higher than 2022/23 export levels – a 44 percent year-over-year increase.
During the same period, fresh apple imports dropped by around one million bushels, a 15 percent decline.
The surge in fresh apple exports is largely attributed to the abundant domestic supply, competitive pricing abroad, and favorable positive trade policies.
"Thanks to the removal of previously imposed tariffs on our apples, exports to India are up nearly 4,000 percent year over year," said Gerlach.
For more information:
Lynsee Gibbons
US Apple Association
[email protected]
www.usapple.org