Stone fruit production in Australia is forecast to increase in marketing year (MY) 2024/25, after above-average rainfall impacted some regions during the harvest period for MY 2023/24, which impacted overall production and quality. Cherry production is forecast to rise by eight percent, while peaches and nectarines are forecast to increase by six percent.
Favourable conditions, including very good cold chill hours and around average rainfall, are forecast for the coming months are anticipated to support higher production. Growers expect improved fruit quality if average or below-average rainfall continues into the harvest period. Consequently, cherry exports are forecast to increase by 25 percent, and peaches and nectarine exports by four percent. Imports of stone fruits are also forecast to rise in MY 2024/25 from low levels.
Production
Cherry production in Australia for MY 2024/25 is forecast to increase to 20,000 metric tons (MT), up from the downward-revised estimate of 18,500 MT for MY 2023/24. This production forecast is 17 percent above the previous five-year average and eight percent above the prior year. Despite this increase, the forecast remains subdued, aligning with two past results over recent years, despite growth in cherry plantings.
The anticipated increase for MY 2024/25 is mainly due to expected favourable production conditions. It also reflects a continued rebound from the significantly lower-than-usual harvest in MY 2022/23, caused by unseasonably wet conditions during the harvest in New South Wales and Victoria. Production in MY 2023/24 was well below expectations due to a second successive year of wet conditions at harvest in the same regions, though the impact was less severe.
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Source: apps.fas.usda.gov