The forecast for the 2024 harvest is 20.7 million tonnes, which is 8.8% lower than 2023 harvested production. This estimate was derived using preliminary NEPG (North-Western European Potato Growers) hectarage figures and August yield data from the EU Commission.
The NEPG anticipates a 4-6% year-over-year (y-o-y) increase in potato hectarage for 2024. However, unfavourable wet weather conditions and increased disease prevalence in the NEPG region have adversely affected potato crop growth and yields. In August, the EU Commission maintained its 2024 harvest yield forecast at 35.1 tonnes per hectare for the EU, which is 4.6% lower than the 2023 harvest yield of 36.8 tonnes per hectare and 1% below the 5-year average. Belgium and the Netherlands were the worst affected by wet weather during plantings earlier in the year, with yield declines of 11% and 6% respectively y-o-y. Meanwhile, yields in France are forecast down 4% y-o-y, and in Germany, they are expected to decrease by 2% y-o-y compared the 2023 EU commission yield figures.
In Spain and Portugal, potato crops remain in average condition thanks to irrigation, despite the high temperatures.
Overall, market players report that they expect better potato availability throughout the 2024/25 market year (MY). Despite a lower production forecast, the generally dry harvest conditions have resulted in potatoes that are in good condition and will be storable throughout the MY, unlike the potatoes harvested under wet conditions in 2023.
Source: Mintec