On September 10, Fundecitrus announced a revision in its forecast for the 2024/25 citrus production in the São Paulo and West-Southwest Minas Gerais region of Brazil, indicating a decrease to 215.78 million boxes, a 7.1% reduction from its May forecast. This figure also shows a 29.8% drop from the previous season's production of 307.22 million boxes. The adjustment is attributed to smaller fruit sizes and a higher rate of fruit drop, exacerbated by the hot, dry weather conditions experienced in the area. Between May and August 2024, the citrus belt received only 64 millimeters of rainfall, which is 54% less than the historical average.
The adverse weather conditions have led to the accelerated ripening of oranges, prompting farmers to initiate the harvest earlier than usual to mitigate the impact of greening disease. A market source during a crop tour in Brazil mentioned to Expana, "not seen a single field without trees affected by greening disease." Fundecitrus reported that by mid-August, approximately 45% of the crop had been harvested, a significant increase from the 30% typical of previous years.
Despite these challenges, the orange juice market has seen some stability with the ongoing harvest. Processors are actively running fruit through September, maintaining a balance between supply and demand, though prices are at a historical high. The Expana Benchmark Price (EBP) for Brazilian orange juice delivered to the EU stands at $7,000/mt, marking a 55% increase from the previous year. However, there is concern among market sources that demand may outstrip supply as the season advances, potentially leading to shortages before the next harvest. This scenario could force supermarkets to adjust prices upwards as existing contracts with European retailers come to an end.
Source: Mintec