Canadian apple production is forecast to see a five percent growth in MY 2024/25, driven by a larger Quebec crop and average Ontario crop. Pear production is forecast to be down nine percent on 2023 numbers as a result of cold impacts to the crop in British Columbia. A larger Ontario crop will only partially offset losses in British Columbia. Production of table grapes is forecast to decline sixteen percent due to adverse weather events impacting Ontario and British Columbia. Imports of apples and pears are forecast to be down slightly in MY 2024/25 driven by shifting consumer preferences and a reduction in U.S. production. Exports of apples are forecast up eight percent on the larger forecasted crop. Imports of table grapes are forecast two percent higher.
FAS/Ottawa forecasts a five percent growth in Canadian apple production in MY 2024/25. Early crop estimates projected a 6.5 percent production increase for Canada with Ontario, Quebec, and British Columbia production anticipated to be larger than MY 2023/24, while in the Maritimes, Nova Scotia was projected to see a decline and New Brunswick production to remain flat. Ontario, Quebec, and British Columbia are the main apple-growing provinces in Canada and typically account for around 90 percent of Canadian production.
Ontario accounts for close to half of Canadian apple production and over one-third of total Canadian apple acreage. High-density plantings provide for higher yields per acre. Significant rains in many Ontario growing regions have been reported to translate into a good crop in size and color. However, the final harvest may be down slightly on MY 2023/24 as a result of excess moisture in some areas. Frost and hail were not reported as having a significant impact on the overall Ontario crop, although there was regional variation. Apples should be stored well. The large Washington apple crop from MY 2023/24 continues to have implications. Prices have been suppressed and are anticipated to remain lower into at least January. July storage reports showed large volumes remained in storage in Ontario, almost 90 percent above July 2023 storage data. Funding announced in 2023 under a federal-provincial partnership is supporting the conversion of some acres to more sustainable varietals as well as shifting acreage to meet changing consumer preferences.
The Quebec apple crop is projected to be up significantly in MY 2024/25, following frost events which negatively impacted production in the previous market year. Timely rains and limited hail damage will see the crop well above the five-year average and anticipated as the largest apple crop in the past 15 years. Quebec producers continue to look for opportunities to modernize their acreage and increase plantings of consumer-preferred varieties such as Ambrosia, Honeycrisp, and Gala.
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