The supply of grapes in North America is transitioning growing regions.
California: While there is still grape supply in storage in California, retailers are transitioning to Peruvian fruit and, to some extent, Brazilian, though California product is largely expected to stay west of the Mississippi. "California will continue to be a factor in the market through holiday week, but not likely much beyond," says Mark Greenberg of Capespan North America.
Peru: From now through New Year's, Peruvian fruit will dominate the market. "Piura (Northern Peru) has more and better fruit than last season but its harvest has run later," he says, adding that Ica's crop is strong though it is running a week or more later than normal. That's likely to push back the Ica crop for two or three weeks later than last season.
Through week 48, Peruvian grape loadings to the U.S. dropped to 78, 221 metric tons from last year's 97, 385 at this time–a 20 percent decline. Though in all, 38 percent of Peru's grape tonnage has been directed to the U.S. compared to last year's 44 percent. "With Ica's harvest coming into production later than normal and much later than last season, Peruvian table grape loadings will now ramp up fairly dramatically," says Greenberg.
South Africa: Harvest in the Northern Cape (Orange River) is also a week to 10 days later than normal. "With Peru likely to dominate the North American market through January, and with very hot European and UK markets, South Africans will feel little inclination to divert fruit to the U.S. for arrival before Christmas, unless it is for a fixed program," Greenberg says. Arrival volume from South Africa should build by the third week of January, though earlier in Canada.
Chile: Chile's earliest fruit from Copiapo and Vallenar is also late by about 10 days. The earliest shipments, which were loaded in week 48 (142 metric tons or 17, 311 cases) are primarily older varieties of Thompson Seedless and Prime. "With most of Chile's early regions having transitioned from Flames, Sugarone, and Thompson to later maturing, new varieties, we will not see Chilean table grapes start to load in volume until around Christmas," says Greenberg.
Varietal notes on grapes
Overall, the USDA has reported that table grape inventory as of November 15 was at 4.93 million cases or 47 percent more than the 3.36 million cases in storage one year earlier. On varieties, the biggest increase in holdings was Allison with 2.83 million cases in storage compared to 648 000 cases a year ago. "Jack's Salute and Scarlet Royal varieties are also up substantially," says Greenberg, adding that the heavy volume of red varieties, combined with a market preference for green varieties means that red seedless prices could stay lagging behind white. "This is almost certainly a reflection of retailers' increasing dissatisfaction with California's late white seedless offering, especially when standing next to a fresh Peruvian white seedless grape," he says.
In all, the relative shortness of supply has pushed prices higher which has impacted movement. Through week 49, Peruvian red seedless table grapes are US$36–$38 (mostly US$ 38) size depending. Movement is also impacted on white seedless at US$40–$44 (mostly US$42). "I expect table grape prices to remain firm through Christmas," says Greenberg. "However this year we will likely see increased overlap between all regions making it unlikely that we will see a repeat of last year when prices remained above the mid US$30s all season long."
While greater volumes are expected in January, a container port strike remains possible. The International Long Shoremen's Association (ILA) and the US Maritime Alliance (USMX) labor dispute is largely unsettled and a potential strike in mid-January looms. "This would have potentially dramatic implications for Peruvian and South African shippers," says Greenberg.
For more information:
Mark Greenberg
Capespan North America
Tel: +1 (514) 739 9181 Extension 102
[email protected]
www.capespan.com