In Canada, potato harvests are flourishing, yet the United States anticipates a 5% decline in potato production for 2023, with projections showing 417.8 million hundredweight and an average yield of 453 hundredweight per acre. This forecast positions the average yield as the third highest historically, albeit lower than the yields of 2023 and 2020, according to the USDA's Economic Research Service in their latest Vegetable and Pulses Outlook report.
While the overall trend suggests stability, concerns regarding growing conditions have been raised. A forecasted 4% decrease in harvested acreage and a 1% dip in yield are among the projections. Weather extremes, including hurricanes and above-average temperatures in key states, have been identified as primary challenges. The University of Florida's estimates suggest damages to Florida's agricultural sector could range from $10M to $38M.
Wisconsin, affected by unusual spring rainfall, is expected to see a 22-year low in average yield, dropping to 380 hundredweight per acre and moving to the fourth position in state contributions to national potato output, now trailing Oregon. Conversely, states like Michigan and Maine recorded historically high yields, with Idaho and Washington maintaining their production lead, contributing over half of the total U.S. crop.
Colorado experienced a mixed outcome with a 2% reduction in planted acres but a 3% increase in yield. Despite these domestic fluctuations, Canada continues to play a significant role in the U.S. potato sector, mainly due to a trade deficit in frozen French fries, making the U.S. a net importer for the fifth consecutive year. Canada dominates U.S. imports of frozen French fries, accounting for 86% of the import volume, followed by the European Union at 13%.
This ongoing reliance on Canadian imports has been a focal point of concern among industry stakeholders, particularly in light of potential tariffs and economic pressures from the U.S. administration. Colin Hornby of Keystone Agricultural Producers emphasized the importance of unhindered trade between Canada and the U.S., noting Manitoba's significant position as North America's fourth-largest potato producer.
Source: Potatoes in Canada