The early 2025 international market has witnessed sharp declines in orange juice prices, influenced by low quality and limited demand due to elevated prices. The May/25 contract at ICE Futures saw a 20.6% drop in March and a 42.8% decrease for the year, settling at 276.45 cents per pound as of March 12.
According to Cepea, the orange sugar/acid ratio was suboptimal for processing activities in early March. Additionally, excessive limonin from heterogeneous harvesting has negatively impacted the final product, increasing bitterness and reducing acceptance in major markets like the United States and the European Union.
Despite falling prices at ICE Futures, orange juice stocks present a contrasting scenario. CitrusBR's March 10 report highlighted that inventories at the end of 2024 were at 351,483 tons (converted to FCOJ), marking a 24.2% decrease from 2023 and the lowest level since record-keeping began.
In the domestic market, the end-of-season period's low quality has pressured industry-paid values downward.
Weather conditions have also raised concerns among citrus growers in São Paulo state. Since mid-February, warm weather and low rainfall have sparked fears about the impact on both orange and Tahiti lime production for the remainder of the 2024/25 season and the upcoming 2025/26 crop.
Source: Cepea