New trade dynamics are unfolding for Australian agriculture following the U.S. tariff announcement. Australian exports to the U.S. will face a 10% tariff as part of the changes in US trade policy. Prime Minister Anthony Albanese has indicated the potential use of "dispute resolution" powers, while Opposition Leader Peter Dutton mentioned leveraging defense and security in negotiations. Australian products have so far avoided the higher "reciprocal tariffs" affecting the U.S.'s major trading partners.
This situation has led to unexpected opportunities for some Australian agricultural markets. Tim Jackson, CEO of the Almond Board of Australia, noted that the U.S. is not a significant market for Australian almonds, as "the U.S. already produces 80% of the world's almonds." However, Australia's almond exports to China have increased since the previous U.S. administration's tariffs. "Since the first lot of tariffs under the [first] Trump administration went in, we went from being 0.77% of Chinese almond imports to nearly 70% this year," Jackson said. Californian almond growers now face a total of 35% tariffs due to reciprocal measures by China.
Jackson emphasized the advantages of Australia's free trade agreement with China and reduced tariffs with India, making Australia a preferred market. He stated that the Chinese market has been a major revenue source, allowing Australian almonds to sell at premium prices. "We certainly sympathise with wine and the like … but there's certainly been an upswing in interest in Australian almonds from anywhere that had a retaliatory tariff placed on Californian almonds," he added.
Michael Cisera, Fruit Growers Victoria's industry development officer, highlighted potential opportunities for Australian fruit in markets affected by U.S. tariffs. "There is potentially going to be some opportunities for countries to want Australian fruit if there's no tariff attached to it," Cisera said. He noted that while Australia does not export apples extensively, the current situation might open doors, especially in markets with reciprocal tariffs on U.S. apples. For stone fruit and cherries, China remains the largest export market.
Andrew Whitelaw, co-founder of Episode3, addressed concerns regarding Canadian canola tariffs. Initially, there was worry about competition in the market, but exemptions for certain products from Canada and Mexico have alleviated these concerns. "Now we don't need to worry about a couple million tons of canola hitting the global market and competing with us," Whitelaw noted.
Source: ABC News