The 2024–2025 Florida all orange forecast, released by the USDA Agricultural Statistics Board, remains unchanged at 11.6 million boxes. If realized, this represents a 36% decrease from last season's revised production. The forecast includes 4.60 million boxes of non-Valencia oranges (early, mid-season, and Navel varieties) and 7.00 million boxes of Valencia oranges. An 8-year regression model was used for comparison, with all references to "average," "minimum," and "maximum" based on the previous 10 seasons, excluding the 2017–2018 season (impacted by Hurricane Irma) and the 2022–2023 season (impacted by Hurricanes Ian and Nicole). Fruit per tree counts include both regular and first late bloom.
Non-Valencia oranges – 4.60 million boxes
The forecast for non-Valencia orange production is unchanged. The harvest for non-Valencia varieties is complete. The Row Count Survey conducted March 26–27, 2025, confirmed the completion of early and mid-season non-Valencia orange harvests. The Navel orange forecast, included in the non-Valencia total, is 100,000 boxes.
Valencia oranges – 7.00 million boxes
The Valencia orange forecast is unchanged at 7.00 million boxes. Final fruit size is below average, with 261 pieces required to fill a 90-pound box. Final fruit droppage was measured at 52%, which is above the historical maximum. The Row Count Survey from March 26–27, 2025, showed that 59% of the Valencia crop had been harvested.
All grapefruit – 1.30 million boxes
The grapefruit forecast increased by 100,000 boxes to 1.30 million boxes. This includes a 10,000-box increase in white grapefruit and a 90,000-box increase in red grapefruit. The Row Count Survey indicates the grapefruit harvest is nearly complete.
Lemons – 600,000 boxes
The lemon forecast remains unchanged at 600,000 boxes.
Tangerines and tangelos – 400,000 boxes
The tangerine and tangelo forecast has been raised by 50,000 boxes to a total of 400,000 boxes. This includes all certified tangerine and tangelo varieties.
Forecast reliability
To assess the reliability of the April 1 production forecast, a "Root Mean Square Error" (RMSE) was calculated using data from the past 20 years. This statistical measure shows the average deviation between April forecasts and final production estimates. The RMSE for the April 1 all-orange forecast is 3.8%, or 4.1% excluding seasons impacted by hurricanes. This means there is a 66% probability that the final estimate will be within 3.8% (or 4.1%) of the forecast and a 90% probability that it will be within 6.5% (or 7.2%). Over the past 20 years, changes between the April 1 forecast and final estimates have averaged 2.76 million boxes (3.01 million excluding abnormal seasons), with a range of 0.05 to 5.7 million boxes. The forecast has been below the final estimate 9 times and above it 11 times (8 times each, excluding abnormal seasons).
To view the full report, click here.
For more information:
USDA
Tel: +1 (202) 720-2791
Email: press@usda.gov
www.usda.gov