Production forecasts for tangerines/mandarins, oranges, lemons, and orange juice remain unchanged from the December 20, 2023 Annual Citrus Report. According to the citrus industry, two consecutive seasons of low production are due to higher temperatures and drought. The extreme heat of summer 2023 negatively impacted flowering, and the lack of rain had severe consequences. The industry describes MY2023/2024 as a weak campaign in terms of yield compared to MY 2021/22. While prices are higher than usual, they do not compensate for the reduced volume, and Post saw ample evidence of abandoned orchards during a recent visit to the Northeast region.
Trade update
Trade numbers have been adjusted down for fresh tangerines/mandarins and oranges in MY 2023/24, based on data received from Morocco's office des changes. Tangerines/mandarins exports were revised down to 400,000 MT, orange exports decreased to 40,000 MT based on trade to date data.
Industry contacts mentioned that the geopolitical events, including the wars in Ukraine and Israel, have led to three major challenges for Moroccan exports: inflation of inputs and logistical costs, the closure of the Suez Canal and blocked access to markets in the Middle East and Asia, and increased competition from Spain, Chile, and Turkey. Chile produces a large volume of clementine and with new late season varieties has an extended its export season, adding to the competitive pressure on Moroccan citrus in the North American market.
Typically, Morocco would enter the market on the North American East Coast in November, but with more late season varieties, Chile has cut into these exports. For orange exports, Moroccan exporters are facing significant competition from Egypt. This season, production is declining, and prices are high in the local market, leading exporters to prefer selling more domestically.
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Source: apps.fas.usda.gov