Weather conditions and political conflicts play an important role in the avocado market. "For instance, heavy rains in Kenya caused delays in the ripening of avocados in the orchard. Due to the late ripening, the desired dry matter content (22-23%) was only reached in April-May, which had a negative impact on Kenyan avocado sales due to competition with the arrival of Peruvian avocados, resulting in lower market prices," Elena Rogojnikova of The Greenery reflects.
Kenyan producers shift focus to China
"The Red Sea crisis led to a significant increase in transit time to Europe, the main market for Kenyan avocado producers. In addition, it has significantly increased sea freight prices. As a result of the longer transit, the quality of avocados on arrival is lower. These problems disrupted the supply chain to Europe, causing many Kenyan producers to shift their attention to the Chinese market. China has a growing demand for avocados, and Kenyan producers see this as an opportunity to sell their produce."
"In South Africa, excessive rainfall caused quality problems, such as skin damage to early Fuerte avocados, and reduced availability. Growers tried to harvest less during the rain to avoid quality problems and peel damage. South African avocados normalised by the end of June, especially with the start of harvest of the Ryan variety in week 27. This was very welcome given the lower volumes of avocados from Peru, which were about 15% less than last year. Lower volumes, especially of smaller sizes, caused price increases," Elena continued.
Possible high market prices from July to September
Israeli avocados of the Galil variety are expected to start in week 34. From week 37, Ettingers will come up with volumes similar to last year. Hass avocado volume from Israel will also remain similar to 2023. Finally, the Pinkertons will be a little behind in terms of volumes compared to previous year. All these factors, together with transport problems in Kenya, could potentially lead to high market prices from July to September. Especially if availability remains limited and demand remains high," said the Greenery buyer.
She expects both avocado production and popularity to continue to grow globally, mainly due to its many health benefits. "Avocados are rightly considered a superfood due to their high content of healthy fats, fibre, vitamins and minerals. This nutritional value contributes to their popularity as a trendsetter in the global AGF market. In particular, exports from Peru, Colombia and Mexico will continue to grow unabated in the coming years, further boosting availability and consumption."
Rising demand Greenskin avocados in Central and Eastern Europe
"In Europe, avocado consumption has increased significantly over the past decade, although there are differences by country. In Western European countries, Hass avocados dominate, known for their creamy texture and rich flavour. This variety is popular in the ready-to-eat (RTE) segment, where consumers can buy ripe avocados that can be eaten immediately. Meanwhile, in Central and Eastern Europe, consumption of Greenskin avocados, which have a smoother skin and less creamy texture, in combination with Hass avocados, is also starting to increase."
"The United States remains the world's largest importer of avocados, with Mexico as its main supplier and also the largest exporter of avocados worldwide. Chile has recently reduced its export volumes to focus more on local consumers, the same goes for Brazil. This means more avocados are available in these countries' domestic markets, but less for export," Elena concludes.
For more information:
Elena Rogojnikova
The Greenery
Mob: 06 52 64 76 00
[email protected]
www.thegreenery.com