The lower volume of avocado exports from Peru continues this season, leading to low stocks in key markets such as Europe. Late pruning of avocado trees in Peru has led to another substantial reduction in exports. More volume is expected from Peru in October and November. This shortage turned out to be favourable for South Africa. Due to the emptier market in Europe, South Africa is said to have had one of their best mid-season sales periods. A strong end to the export campaign is expected for South Africa. Morocco is waiting to start from around the middle of September with up to 50% higher volumes and better sizes that are expected. The Rwandan season is also expected to start after mid-September with a shift to European markets from Middle Eastern markets.
Spain has had a good production and export campaign for Valencian avocados with the harvest in this region increasing by 50%. In contrast the main avocado growing area of Andalusia had a reduction in volumes due to the drought, but still with good exports. High prices for avocados remain in Italy. Supply comes from different sources. The French market was tense in June, with high prices that have now levelled off as more supply came through. In Germany shortages are expected as supply from Kenya, Peru and South Africa are now noticeably dwindling. Chile is currently demanding extremely high purchase prices for its produce because of the pull from the U.S. market due to a smaller harvest in Mexico as noted by German traders. In Israel an early start to the next season is expected from later this month. A big season is awaited in Israel, with 250,000 tons of fruit potentially on the trees with about half of that to be exported. The holiday season in the Netherlands has caused a soft market for avocados.
It's a crazy period at the end of the Mexican season. The biggest delay has been rain affecting the supply in the last four weeks causing a drop of 20% from Mexico. Despite the lower volumes, demand is said to be lukewarm in the U.S. with pricing seeing an increase after USDA inspection pause in Michoacán in June.
Peru: Volumes down again this season
The longer term effects of the El Niño weather phenomenon has affected Peru's avocado trees. An expert in Peru notes: "We're facing a slow exit on the part of Peru. It is the result of the variable late pruning, which is summarized in a lower percentage of exported volume, on average, of less between -40% to -45% when comparing the 25/24 and 24/23 campaigns, until the first weeks of the year up to the month of August. Prices are very similar to the previous campaign due to the low volume of supply in the different markets. We are expected to have a large volume of production in the month of October/November."
Another grower comments that new plantations have helped to lessen the impact of lower volumes: "The Peruvian avocado ended up with 5% less. This year there were new fields that began to produce what were planted in 2020 and 2021 and this new area concealed the sharp drop in production this year."
South Africa: Strong end to the export campaign expected
After what has been described as one of the best mid-season sales periods for South African avocados in a long while - driven by lower Peruvian volumes - a strong end to the export campaign is also expected. "Europe has been good for us this year, but shipping delays..." sighs an exporter who had many pallets on a ship that took 45 days to land in Europe. "If you look over the last ten years, the average time to ship from South Africa to Europe used to be around 20 to 22 days. It's now gone to 40 days - and an avocado doesn't have a forty day shelf life."
Regardless of how good the prices are, therefore, it remains theoretical in the context of shipping delays and a lack of shipping choices sailing from Cape Town harbour.
The Southern African avocado industry body confirmed that China has just given the greenlight for exports to start from South Africa. This follows after verification visits by the Chinese authorities over a month ago. "Generally, it has been a good season. We are more than 80% done with the estimate of 20 million cartons in terms of shipments. The actual shipped cartons is close to 18 million cartons. We will reach at least 20 million cartons with 90% of the fruit volume coming from South Africa, with fruit coming from Zimbabwe and Mozambique too."
Because of strong export pull during the latter part of the season, domestic supply of avocados is predicted to be constrained towards the end of the year - week-on-week volumes arriving at the fresh produce markets have already been dropping - while market analyst AMT predicts a price as high as R30/kg by November. The lower domestic supply could stimulate increased avocado imports.
A bag of six small Hass fruit sells for R29.99 (1.5 euro) at a major retailer at the moment, while the price at the Johannesburg fresh produce market is R22.50 per kilogram for 4kg trays but lower for larger packaging units; the national average per kilogram is R15 (0.75 euro).
Interestingly, in South Africa, Fuerte avocados outperform Hass, with a large difference between the two currently: Hass selling for R10.99/kg and Fuerte for R20.68/kg on average. Pinkertons are situated right between the two, at R15/kg.
Morocco: More volumes and better sizes are expected
The Moroccan season will start in week 38 or 39 for the green skin varieties and in week 43 for the Hass variety. The acreage under production is around 10 thousand hectares, a slight increase on the previous season. But expected volumes are around 80-90 thousand tonnes, or 33-50% more than last season, according to a growers' representative. He said, "The forecast increase in volumes is due to the maturity of young trees as well as improved sizes and better climatic conditions." The same source adds that the harvest for the upcoming season is marked by larger sizes, with more fruits of sizes 16, 18, and 20.
Rwanda: shift to European markets in the next season
The Rwandan season starts in week 39 or 40, and will be marked by commercial changes. Until now, 90% of Rwanda's volumes were destined for the Middle East, and shipped by air. A Rwandan grower says, "We have made several trials over the last two seasons to deliver to Europe by sea. Last season, we carried out commercial trials to export containers per month to Rotterdam and Algeciras. These trials have been highly successful and will enable us to diversify into the European market starting next season." The same source adds, "Shipping avocados to Rotterdam by sea, via the Kenyan port of Mombasa, used to take about 31 days, which was ideal." The same source adds, "However, the Red Sea crisis has increased this transit time to over 43 days. We've had to adapt to this severe crisis by targeting closer markets."
Rwanda's total volumes for next season are expected to be around 10 thousand tonnes, with an improvement in size compared to last season, and more fruits of the sizes 16 to 20.
Spain: Good production campaign for Valencian avocados, and exports for Andalusia
The Valencian Association of Farmers and the Association of Avocado Producers report a positive balance of the avocado campaign in a year in which the harvest has increased by 50% compared to the previous season, reaching 21,000 tons in the Valencian Community compared to 14,000 tons in the previous season, "due to the vegetative development of the trees and the entry into production of new plantations."
"This evolution contrasts with the decrease in the harvest experienced in Andalusia, the main production area of Spain, where the drought caused havoc and even forced farms to be removed," the association points out.
"Due to the decrease in Andalusian supply, the demand for avocados has been high and the pace of marketing was fluid," they highlighted, with prices at the source being good, "stabilized around 2.5 €/kg on average." However, "once again, farmers suffered greater marketing problems in the final stretch of the season due to the arrival of imports from the southern hemisphere on the European market."
It should be noted that, despite the development of the campaign in Andalusia, the Andalusian Ministry of Agriculture has reported that the value of Andalusian avocado exports between January and May 2024, which were concentrated in Malaga and Granada at 97.5%, has increased by 9.8% compared to the same period of the previous year after reaching 185,258,000 euros; as for the volume exported, an increase of 11.9% has been recorded, with a total of 54,397 tons in this same period.
In fact, if the period between September 2023 and May 2024 is taken into account, this increase in Andalusian avocado exports amounts to 15% in volume and 15% in value, compared to the previous campaign.
As for the current situation, "we are facing a market with acceptable prices and good consumption, although it has dropped a little in the last two weeks, as is usual during the holiday period," says one operator. "We are certainly having a more stable summer than last year and the year before, when there were quite a few difficulties and we are noticing an increase in demand for small and medium sizes for consumers looking for more affordable prices."
Italy: High prices remain
In Italy, avocados are still extremely expensive to buy at the source. "After the end of the South African Pinkerton campaign, demand has leveled off a little. Until two or three weeks ago, demand was very strong. At the moment, Hass avocados are available from Peru, Kenya and Colombia, but prices remain high: between €10 and €15, depending on origin, size and quality. Greenskin products are scarce and prices are also high: over €12," says a wholesaler in northern Italy, who is looking forward to the Israeli and Spanish campaigns from the end of September.
France: Market seeing more supply
Currently, on the market, the origins are mainly Kenya and Peru. About Peruvian origin, the weather-related shortfall in production for this season is around 20%. Volumes are therefore lower, but sizes are also smaller. The market became complicated in mid-April, with volumes accelerating and accumulating in Europe, particularly in small sizes, with a peak in arrivals at the beginning of May. The market then gradually recovered, with export volumes declining from May onwards. In June, the market was very tense and prices high due to a lack of merchandise. Since then, however, there have been no major production peaks, and the market is promising because there are fewer supplies.
Germany: Shortages expected
Supplies from the major growing countries of Kenya, Peru and South Africa are now noticeably dwindling. "Chile will not start producing larger quantities until week 36-37 and Israeli avocados will not hit the market until week 41/42. Colombia is also expected to export fewer quantities this year", a German importer confirms.
Chile is currently demanding extremely high purchase prices for its produce. To make matters worse, the USA is procuring more produce from Chile due to the smaller harvest in Mexico. As a result, shortages are to be expected in September and October.
Israel: Early start to season expected
The 2024/25 Israel avocado harvest season is expected to start earlier than usual, with a very hot summer speeding up the harvest. The first bit of Green skin avocados started this week as the main and real harvest is expected to start from the end of August. Some plots in the North of Israel are pushing the dry matter a bit higher due to the warm summer. Growers expect to see a decline in Pinkerton, with this year said to be an off year for this variety. A big season is awaited in Israel, with 250,000 tons of fruit potentially on the trees with about half of that to be exported.
Russia remains key for Green skin avocado, despite logistical challenges and the war. Israel's main export season is between January to March when the Hass is in full swing with most of the avocados going to the European market.
Netherlands: Soft market for avocados
According to a Dutch importer, the demand for avocados is not very strong. This is not unusual during the holiday season, when there is a wide variety of other fruits available. Prices for larger sizes range between 10 and 12 euros, but selling smaller sizes is significantly more challenging. The importer is finding it difficult to provide a forecast. "There are conflicting reports about this. Much will depend on what South Africa does and how quickly Peru stops its supply. The latter seems to be coming to an end soon."
North America: Late end of Mexico's "loca" avocado season anticipated
The "loca" or "crazy" avocado season is underway. The biggest delay has been rain affecting the supply in the last four weeks.
While it normally ends in October, with climate change, it's anticipated to end in November. In all, there has been approximately 20 percent less fruit from Mexico this year. Meanwhile, Peru, Columbia, and California have all seen volume increases.
In Mexico, fruit is coming from Michoacán and Jalisco where the orchards with more volume are the ones with the Mendez variety–most of these are in Jalisco. Yet the sizing is predominately on the smaller end of the size curve. Larger sizes (36 and 32s) are hard to come by. Also, in Mexico, Nayarit and Colima are producing fruit already, as is Morelos.
Meanwhile, demand is lukewarm with retailers using soft fruit, watermelons, and grapes in promotions instead of avocados, though this expected to change soon. As for pricing, this has just seen an increase following the USDA inspection pause in Michoacán in June.
Next week's topic: Bananas