In the lead-up to the Mid-Autumn Festival, market dynamics shifted noticeably with a decline in trader activity and suppliers adjusting their stock levels in anticipation of post-holiday demand patterns. Currently, the focus is on moving the inventory accumulated before the holiday. Notably, the prices for certain fruits, including plums, blueberries, and durians, which had seen a hike pre-festival, have been adjusted downwards post holiday.
Market feedback suggests a varied performance across different fruits during this year's Mid-Autumn Festival. Apples, traditionally a festival favorite, experienced a dip in sales, with estimates suggesting a 20% to 30% decrease in volume compared to the previous year. Peruvian blueberries, despite their limited availability and higher prices, performed slightly better than last year, although their sales volume remained modest. Durians maintained a strong demand with prices peaking before the festival, mirroring last year's trend. Plums and winter jujubes, on the other hand, experienced a surge in prices and sales one to two weeks prior to the festival. However, a general market slowdown was observed just days before this year's celebration, a trend setting in earlier than the previous year.
Left: Xinjiang plums; Right: Peruvian blueberries
Post-festival, Peruvian blueberries saw a significant price reduction due to an increase in supply and a dip in demand, with prices dropping from approximately ¥260 per box to ¥200-¥210 per box. The market welcomed a broader range of brands, maintaining quality and predominantly featuring the Pop variety. The high initial prices prompted many buyers to adopt a wait-and-see approach, with expectations of further price drops. Especially with new shipments arriving in Hong Kong next week, more room for price reduction is estimated.
The Chilean avocado market has remained stable, maintaining a price point of ¥140 per box, marking a 15% increase over the same period last year. Peruvian avocados are slightly cheaper at ¥130 per box. Despite stable prices, avocado sales have been sluggish.
Left: Chilean avocados; Right: Philippine durians
Durian sales during the festival were comparable to last year, albeit with higher production costs. Post-festival, the market is primarily dealing with pre-holiday stock, with fewer premium A6 grade fruits and more A3 and B grade offerings, priced around 10%-15% lower than pre-festival rates.
Plum prices experienced a significant drop post-festival, from approximately ¥45 per box (2kg plastic frame) and ¥65 per box for high-quality variants, to ¥25-35 per box, with the majority settling at around ¥35 per box.