It's like being stalked by a turtle. That's how Dan Richey of Riverfront Packing Company describes the incoming category 5 Hurricane Milton which is set to hit Florida Wednesday.
"This is a major hurricane threatening the entire citrus belt in Florida," says Dan Richey of Riverfront Packing Company. "It's extremely concerning, especially on the heels of fighting greening, citrus canker, and then to have this thrown at us."
With the hurricane set to make landfall Wednesday, that's halted grapefruit harvest which was set to start this week given the fruit is reaching maturity. "From a grapefruit standpoint, the fruit has got size and it's heavier and gaining juice weight and therefore it's going to be more prone to blow off the tree," says Richey. "So the hurricane is coming in at a bad time."
Timing of labor
As for harvesting, fruit also couldn't be harvested ahead of time given maturity wasn't reached yet, nor had its H-2A harvesting labor arrived yet. (They are set to later this week.)
While fruit knocked off trees is one concern, another is storm surge. Many of the tributaries that go into the gulf creeks are already over their banks from previous rains. A storm surge pushing against those won't allow it to drain and the rain will have no place to go but overflow (as was seen with Hurricane Ian in 2022) into the groves. "Then it's a matter of how quickly will it drain after that," says Richey. "Citrus cannot take being flooded for very long. Then you're fighting root deterioration and when you're already fighting root deterioration with greening, it just adds another level of stress that could impact things."
As learnings from Hurricane Ian and other hurricanes have shown, hurricanes are two-year events in terms of impact on citrus growing.
Photo: National Hurricane Center
Knowledge from experience
However, Florida growers are also quick to note their resiliency as a state industry and Richey notes that the storm should be cleared out by Friday which means assessments post-storm can begin this week. "We are strong and we will come out the other end. Depending on how severe it is, we may look a little different but we'll be there. That's a definite."
At Feek Family Citrus, preparations are underway for Milton's effects. "We're on the East side of the state and we're preparing and expecting Category 1 winds and five to eight inches of rain. In the center part of the state where a lot of the fruit is grown, we don't know if it's going to be a Category 1 or 2 and we don't know which areas it's going to go through though we're expecting 10 to 12 inches of rain," says Doug Feek.
In all, it suspects on early oranges, it could lose upwards of 30-40 percent of the crop, and on Valencias oranges, it could lose upwards of 20 percent of the crop. "We're still positive as far as our fruit offer. The fresh market will still get their fruit first and the juice market will get it second. So there will still be plenty of fruit for the fresh market," he says, noting that the market may also be driven up a bit more.
Working ahead?
Inconveniences are ahead though given harvesting has stopped, though Feek Family Citrus hopes to be back to picking by Saturday with hopefully having supply by mid-next week. "We tried to pick ahead but it's been raining since we got started," says Feek, noting that its crews came in at the end of September. "It's very difficult to get ahead when you're continuously battling rain, and not all the crews are here yet so we're limited that way too."
In strawberries, a key Florida crop, preparations are also happening. "This is a monster storm that we are taking very seriously," says Nick Wishnatzki of Wish Farms. "Our strawberry growers are in the middle of planting fields, so we are taking proactive steps by staging 25 refrigerated trailers to protect the plant stock in case of extended power outages. At this point, we are at the mercy of Mother Nature."
Wishnatzki adds it expects there will be damage and impact to the industry in central Florida. "So we will emerge from our shelters late Thursday and early Friday to assess and start the cleanup," he says.
Milton on tomatoes
Over in vegetables, this weather event could very likely lead to strong pricing ahead in tomatoes. Roger Riehm of Blue Creek Produce says there is still a fair amount of product, including grape and round tomatoes, in the Carolinas and Alabama that wasn't affected by the recent Hurricane Helene. "So there's still some availability, keeping items such as grape tomatoes plentiful and with competitive pricing," he says.
However, Milton will very likely impact what Florida has planted. "Some areas may also not be able to replant or won't replant. Therefore, Palmetto, Ruskin where they had blossom drop initially with the first hurricane, this could be a death blow," he says.
Also, parts of southern Florida experienced a similar blossom drop via Hurricane Helene, and a lot of rain already this summer, and that means it's expected that production will be impacted significantly and planting may need to be restarted. "With it being 60 days out, it could be a very late crop, and therefore pricing will be skyrocketing coming out of Mexico for the next two to four months," says Riehm. "It would be similar to what we saw last year when we saw grape tomatoes go up to $90/box."
This comes on top of the fact that tomato supply isn't at its peak right now out of Mexico due to weather issues which include heat, humidity, rain, and more.
More on Milton
Milton is one of the strongest storms on record, closing in on Florida. It is a Category 5 hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 160 miles per hour. Although it is forecast to weaken before it makes landfall, it will double in size. This means its impact will be felt over a much larger area. Milton is expected to make landfall along the west-central coast of Florida late Wednesday night or early Thursday morning.
For more information:
Dan Richey
Riverfront Packing Company
www.scottcitrus.com
Doug Feek
Feek Family Citrus
https://feekfamilycitrus.com/
Nick Wishnatzki
Wish Farms
www.wishfarms.com
Roger Riehm
Blue Creek Produce
[email protected]