The challenges of growing tomatoes and balancing the markets are ever present across many growing countries. The European Commission's new monthly tomato price overviews from Spain, Italy, the Netherlands, and France, by away of AI analysis shows cultivation declined by 700,000 tons over the past decade. Imports only increased by 400,000 tons. Dutch tomato cultivation is "back to normal." Winter cultivation is also ongoing in Belgium. In Italy tomatoes fetch high prices due to shortages, with a delayed start caused by excessive heat and drought in Sicily. Germany's tomato prices are rising as supply from multiple countries are decreasing slightly. Since the beginning of the week, the market has turned completely upside down in France with tomato consumption plummeting at the onset of colder winter temperatures. Israel's tomato shortage, after their major supplier Turkey banned exports, was somewhat relieved with local supply and imports from the Netherlands and Poland. Spain has had smooth demand and prices at the start of the season with favourable weather in key growing regions too.
North America is seeing stronger pricing and demand for tomatoes following the two recent hurricanes that just went through Central Florida that impacted growing, leaving a lack of tomato supply. The Yucatan, northern Honduras, and Guatemala all saw flooding from Tropical Storm Sarah, which impacted greenhouses. The EU ban on pesticides together with higher temperatures in key growing regions in Morocco is causing growers to battle with pests. South Africa is transitioning in tomato supply from the North to the South with low volumes that are set to increase in December.
Europe: Retail prices and consumer insights
The European Commission now publishes monthly tomato price overviews from Spain, Italy, the Netherlands, and France, including new data from retail sales. An AI-driven analysis of European tomato consumption reveals that while cultivation declined by 700,000 tons over the past decade, imports increased by only 400,000 tons.
Germany serves as a case study, with tomato consumption rising by 10% despite a 2% population growth. Over the past decade, prices increased by 65%, with inflation accounting for 30% of the rise. German consumers appear willing to pay more for tomatoes. Notably, German retail prices closely follow the prices set by major Dutch cooperatives, indicating that German retailers effectively influence cooperative pricing.
The Dutch warn of rising supply chain costs driven by sustainability and regulatory demands, such as CSRD requirements and stricter packaging regulations. With production no longer increasing, managing these costs will be a key challenge.
Netherlands and Belgium: Dutch tomato cultivation "back to normal."
The Dutch tomato cultivation is "back to normal." After issues with viruses and energy costs, summer production has returned to (almost) its usual levels. This winter, in about three-quarters of the greenhouses equipped with artificial lighting, the lamps are back on. This is estimated to account for 600 hectares of illuminated winter cultivation, a doubling compared to last winter. With the help of subsidies, there has been a large-scale transition to LED lighting. Winter cultivation is also ongoing in Belgium.
In the Netherlands, 70% of the winter production consists of vine tomatoes, while the remaining 30% includes cherry tomatoes and other smaller varieties. In Belgium, for the first time, beef tomatoes are also available outside the traditional season, coming from an autumn crop.
Prices have been above the five-year average since September. A slight dip in pricing in early November has been overcome. Last week, the average price at Belgian auctions rose, while the price for loose tomatoes stabilized. Local growers are facing increased competition, particularly from Morocco.
A large part of the market has switched to ToBRFV-resistant varieties. Some growers are even switching from one resistant variety to another. It remains a challenge for growers to cultivate these new varieties optimally. Lower yields and sometimes taste issues have been reported. Especially in specialties, there are still instances where tomatoes are grown without resistant varieties. For winter cultivation, however, growing without resistance is practically non-existent.
Energy remains a key concern. Starting January 1, 2025, energy taxes in the Netherlands will increase. This is particularly concerning for smaller growers without CHP (Combined Heat and Power) systems. Larger growers are investing in a range of energy techniques for risk diversification. Some growers are also looking at cultivating abroad. Both Dutch and Belgian growers are involved in projects in North Africa and Spain, and research is also being conducted in other regions.
Italy: High prices due to shortages caused by drought in Sicily
The Sicilian tomato production season is not yet in full swing and as a result prices are very high. This is because planting started late due to excessive heat and drought. Most of the produce will arrive in 20 days' time, so prices will remain high for the next few days. For example, plum tomatoes are easily exceeding €4.00/kg. So far, there have been no reports of interference from foreign competitors such as Morocco, Spain and Turkey. Crops that started late, with lower temperatures during plant growth, have prevented the occurrence of plant diseases.
The Moro Sardo tomato campaign is going well. "The added value of a product grown exclusively in Sardinia, respecting a now centuries-old tradition of the area, is being recognised. The lack of production in the tomato category (whether plum, piccadilly or cherry), especially in the summer, pushed prices to very high levels. We are now seeing a certain stabilisation. The market has returned to optimal prices, which also allows us to carry out programs with supermarket chains. We have also started the season with the new Noir variety, a black tomato that we have been testing for the last three years and whose area we intend to increase".
For the Camone salad tomato, known for its round shape, smooth skin, crunchy texture and long shelf-life, the weather in recent months seems to have affected the crop, delaying the first harvests by about 15 days and causing some agronomic problems, such as a greater development in the height of the flowering stages. "It is a vegetable with a shelf-life of around 20 days, which is becoming increasingly popular on the Italian market, also thanks to its high profile and multiple uses in the kitchen. The commercial calendar is 11 months, with only one month left uncovered (from mid-August to mid-September), although this year we were forced to extend the commercial gap by a few weeks," reports one of the four Italian growers authorised to grow it.
A large wholesaler in a market in northern Italy says that prices for the different types of tomatoes have been very high for the last few months and this is holding back consumption. At the beginning of week 47, the average wholesale price for the main varieties was between €3 and €3.50 per kg, with peaks of €5.5/kg for plum tomatoes. The product comes from Sicily, a region 'penalised' by drought and high temperatures during planting, so the quantities in circulation are lower than normal. The wholesaler goes on to say that foreign tomatoes have also been on the market for a few days, from France, of good quality and at much lower prices, and many wholesalers are turning to them. Dutch production, on the other hand, does not meet expectations due to poor quality and is therefore not welcome.
Germany: Tomato prices rising
Belgian and Dutch badges decreased slightly and Turkish imports also declined somewhat. Meanwhile, Moroccan, Turkish and Spanish shipments gained in importance. Italian offers also played a somewhat greater role than before.
Overall, interest was satisfied without major efforts. Nevertheless, rising prices were frequently observed. Belgian goods in particular rose in price which led to a noticeable reluctance to buy at several wholesale markets. German lots were only available to a limited extent and were relatively expensive, but nevertheless generated sufficient attention.
France: Market turned with consumption plummeting
We're at the crossroads of the French tomato season. Many producers are about to end their season. Last week, prices were hovering around 1.80 euros/kilo for grape tomatoes, 1.50 euros/kilo for round ones and 1.80 euros/kilo for fleshy ones. Prices could have been higher, but the French market had sufficient volume, which prevented prices from rising. There was also a disparity in quality at the end of the campaign, leading to a wide variation in prices between different batches.
Prices were described as "correct", even if they remained below those of border production. Until last week, the Dutch and Belgians didn't have much volume, so prices were more sustained, at around 2.20 euros/kilo per bunch. As for Spanish grapes, they had not yet arrived in France, as domestic consumption was still present and the product was better valued for export. The French market was therefore not overloaded with imported tomatoes.
But since the beginning of the week, the market has turned completely upside down. Consumption has plummeted even further with the onset of winter temperatures, driving prices down on the French market. The farmers' blockades have had no impact on imports of Moroccan and Spanish tomatoes into the country, and Dutch goods have arrived on the market at low prices, reinforcing the imbalance between supply and demand.
Israel: Tomato shortage after Turkish ban somewhat relieved with local supply
The local supply of tomatoes has somewhat relieved the tomato shortage in Israel, together with more imports that were allowed from some other countries. The effect of the ban on exports from Turkey, a traditionally large supplier of tomatoes to Israel, still lurks in the country. The Netherlands and Poland supplied the much needed tomatoes. However, importers in Israel note there were challenges with the long transit from Europe to Israel.
Israel's government through the agriculture ministry made efforts to increase the supply of tomatoes since the ban. They allowed 5,000 tons of tomatoes to be imported duty free. This was followed by another batch of a few thousand tons to be brought in duty free. Despite these efforts importers note, there will still be less volumes of tomatoes than normal in Israel driving up the prices as a result.
Spain: Smooth demand and prices at the start of the season
The tomato season has had a good start in Spain, both because of the influence of the weather on the quality of the fruit, and the good transition between the crops in northern and southern Europe.
"Both Almeria and Murcia have tried starting with the harvests a little earlier, because last year they were quite late, but the truth is that, so far, there hasn't been a great tomato supply," according to a grower and exporter. "The rains in Almeria and Murcia have been moderate compared to those of many other areas in the Mediterranean, which have been hit by heavy storms, but between October and November there have been a number of cloudy days and slightly lower temperatures compared to the last two years. As a result, the production has not been brought forward"
The transition between the productions from central and northern Europe to Spain "is going quite well, without the overlapping of other years. Thus, in general, there's a smooth demand and prices at the start of the season are at the right levels for this time of the year," says the grower. In any case, the condition of the crops is the main reason to be optimistic. "This summer has been, on average, less hot compared to the last two years, so it hasn't been as tough for the plants, which have grown optimally and are yielding a remarkable quality production. Given the good condition of the crops, we believe that we will have a good season."
Regarding competition with non-EU origins, there's the prospect of greater pressure from Morocco in the first part of the season. Last year, due to the heat waves in summer, there was a more limited supply of Moroccan tomatoes between November and December. However, they then saw a recovery of the volumes, which led to oversupply in the second part of the season. This year, they will start on the expected dates with normal volumes.
North America: Stronger pricing and demand for tomatoes following recent hurricanes
Field tomato markets are elevated. The two hurricanes that just went through Central Florida have impacted growing, leaving a lack of tomato supply.
However, in early December, new fields will start to be picked in Immokalee, Florida, though there will be diminished volume there because of the weather's effects on plantings. By the second week in December, there should be good volume on grape, cherry, roma, and round tomatoes.
This is pressuring supply from other regions such as Mexico and California, which are both in production (though Mexico, which has similar plantings to 2023, has seen cooler temperatures recently which can slow production down and pressure pricing), as well as greenhouse tomatoes.
On pricing, roma tomatoes are in the mid-$20; round tomatoes are slightly higher; greenhouse tomatoes have a wider range in pricing. There's been some recovery from Canadian producers and the Mexican growers but not enough to drive the market to below historically high price points. Meanwhile, with Tropical Storm Sarah, the Yucatan, northern Honduras, and Guatemala all saw flooding which impacted greenhouses.
Morocco: EU ban on pesticides and hotter weather sees growers battle with pests
The Moroccan export tomato season effectively began on October 15 and is scheduled to finish at the end of May. Acreage in the region has remained stable across all varieties, but round tomato acreage is down by almost 10%, offset by segmentation tomatoes. The Souss Massa region is experiencing higher average temperatures than last season, which is not helping the phytosanitary situation. Growers continue to bear the full brunt of pest damage, as well as ToBRFV. Growers are discreet about the extent of the ToBRFV, but at the start of the season, infected plants are quickly replaced with no impact on volumes. The European Union ban on certain active ingredients in phytopharmaceutical products further complicates treatment. As a result, the quality of Moroccan tomatoes is not at its best at this time of the season.
European demand is still weak, according to one Moroccan exporter, which reduces prices for tomatoes on the export market as well as on the local market. The ban on active ingredients directly increases treatment costs by more than 25%. Coupled with the cost of irrigation and transport, growers are seeing their margins squeezed. Despite this, an Agadir-based grower says, "I think the same area will be maintained until the end of the season, a lot can change in the space of a season and we'll see what the winter cycle is like."
Seen from the other side of the Mediterranean, the picture is different. A French importer shares that his daily imports are dominated by Moroccan origin at 97%, with the remainder coming from Spain. A Dutch importer says that demand for Moroccan tomatoes is strong and prices are high. However, one Moroccan exporter comments, "There's certainly a fair volume exported from Morocco, but we're used to more. The same goes for prices. Despite the difficulties in Spain, prices for Moroccan round tomatoes are around 0.9 EUR per kilo. There is room for much needed price improvement given the difficulties on the production front."
South Africa: Volumes of tomatoes to increase 'exponentially' towards December
This is a period of transition in tomato supply, with some primarily winter-growing areas in South Africa's north ending as their summers become too hot, passing the baton to growers down south.
There are quality issues related to recent heatwaves and rain - unseasonal in some areas, such as the western Cape. "The volumes ought to pick up exponentially towards December," says a trader.
The average price dropped by 7% last week to R10.70 (0.5 euro) per kilogram (R12.92 /kg for large tomatoes). A 6kg carton with first-class tomatoes easily climbs from R50 or R60 to R90 or R100, a jump which consumers have reluctantly learned to accept during the periodic short supplies over the last couple of years.
Next week's topic: Papayas