Zespri's recent five-year outlook report offers an analysis of the sector's trajectory towards the end of the decade, highlighting both opportunities and challenges. The report underscores a persistent demand for SunGold fruit that surpasses supply, with Zespri optimistic about the market's willingness to pay a premium for its branded offerings. In 10 out of 15 markets, Zespri Kiwifruit ranks within the top three fruit choices, indicating a robust demand for both locally grown and internationally sourced Zespri-branded fruit.
Forecasts within the report suggest SunGold will continue to lead demand, with projections showing an increase in supply from 130 million trays to 153 million by 2030. Conversely, the traditional Green variety is expected to see a decrease in volume from 60 million trays to 50 million during the same period, a shift attributed to growers transitioning to other varieties. This reduction in Green fruit supply is anticipated to elevate its value per tray by 28% to $9 by 2030. Additionally, price projections for SunGold and RubyRed are set to rise by 19% to $12.50 and 32% to $16.50 per tray, respectively.
However, the report does not overlook the issue of unauthorized SunGold plantings in China, which have expanded to cover an estimated 8387 hectares, surpassing New Zealand's SunGold cultivation area. These illegal plantings, producing around 40 million trays, pose a significant challenge, with some of the output sold as counterfeit Zespri-branded products. Despite efforts to combat this issue through legal channels, the competition from these and other international sources remains a concern.
The report also identifies major opportunities linked to the expanding global middle class, increased fruit consumption among older demographics, and a heightened focus on health and nutrition post-COVID-19 pandemic. It notes a potential for growth in Zespri's market penetration, which currently sits at less than 30% globally. From a supply standpoint, Zespri plans to release additional SunGold licenses in the coming years, while expansion in the northern hemisphere is pending a grower vote. The RubyRed variety, though currently small in volume, is expected to see significant growth by 2030, despite concerns over fruit size potentially impacting consumer preference.
Source: Farmers Weekly