The U.S., traditionally an agricultural leader, is facing a projected $49 billion trade deficit in agriculture this year, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) trade outlook report. Increased imports of produce like avocados and coffee are key contributors. Concurrently, American staple crops are losing global market share.
The U.S. has been importing more food than it exports since 2023, a reversal from its historical trade surplus. Previously, deficits were recorded in 2019 and 2020 during the trade conflict with China, and sporadically before 1960.
Mark Powers, president of the Northwest Horticultural Council, expressed concerns at the USDA's Agricultural Outlook Forum, stating, "What we're seeing is not reassuring when it comes to increasing our reliance on a small number of markets." He emphasized the importance of focusing on North American markets, noting increased U.S. apple exports to Canada and Mexico.
Import tariffs proposed by former President Donald Trump, including a 25% levy on Mexican and Canadian goods, and a 10% tax on Chinese goods, could exacerbate trade tensions. This might increase food import costs if retaliatory measures occur.
The USDA forecasts a 6.5% rise in farm goods imports to $219.5 billion by September 30, driven by demand for avocados, orange juice, and coffee. Exports are expected to decrease by 2.2%, totaling $170.5 billion. The USDA noted, "Avocado imports from Mexico, the largest commodity in terms of import volume, are expected to increase on strong demand and improved growing conditions."
Traditional crops like wheat, corn, cotton, and soybeans face competition from countries like Russia and Brazil. The U.S. Soybean Export Council's CEO, Jim Sutter, highlights efforts to market U.S. soy's lower carbon footprint and sustainability certifications. Ryan LeGrand, CEO of the U.S. Grains Council, noted a shift towards value-added products like ethanol due to competitive pressures.
Source: Farm Progress