The uncertainty is a challenge. That's what Robert L. Guenther, manager of the Florida Tomato Committee says about the environment for produce at the moment. This follows last week's pausing for a second time of tariffs on product coming into the U.S. from Canada and Mexico and the talk of potential retaliatory tariffs. "We'll see what happens now. The uncertainty of what's going to happen every few weeks, whether they're really going to reinstate tariffs and how long it will be, from a business perspective is tough when you're planning what you want to export, what you want to use for domestic supply and more," says Guenther. "It's difficult for all growers and businesses related to selling produce, not just tomatoes."
This uncertainty comes when the Florida tomato industry is, from a production perspective, getting back to normal following a difficult start to the season with Hurricanes Helene and Milton affecting agriculture in the state. "It hurt a lot of agriculture in the state and it took a while for tomatoes to get our feet back on the ground," says Guenther. "It knocked a lot of the fall crop out with plants recovering or being replanted."
Just in the last few weeks, production levels on tomatoes in Florida, whose season generally lasts from October to June, have come back to historical levels.
Increase in supply from Mexico
However, other challenges have emerged this season, starting with an abundance of supply which has led to low pricing compared to historical levels. "Prices are seeing a huge impact," he says. "Our supply is fairly normal based on previous year's data but there appears to be significant increases of supply out of Mexico right now and has been that way since January. Whether this has to do with the threat of tariffs and getting ahead of them or just industry oversupply it's too early to tell.
While that's likely one of the significant challenges for the state at the moment, add to that the fact that movement on tomatoes (and other U.S. agricultural products) is slow right now. Domestically, demand is steady. However north of the U.S. border particularly, a consumer movement is impacting the demand of U.S. produce items, including tomatoes. "We're having challenges with some of the anti-U.S. sentiment on a lot of commodities in Canada. I've talked to a number of colleagues in fruit and vegetables and we're all feeling it where there's been a slowdown, if not outright rejection, of U.S. product going into Canada because of what's been happening with the trade issues over the last couple of months," says Guenther.
Pro-Canada movement
The movement is not just centered around tariffs and possibly pre-dates the potential tariff implementation dates. "It's driven by the consumers and the retail and foodservice industry there. It's become very pro-Canadian and it's had a significant impact across the board on a lot of commodities being exported," says Guenther. "Canada is the number one export market for fruit and vegetables from the United States. From apples to potatoes to leafy greens to tomatoes, across the board folks in the U.S. who traditionally have a good relationship with the Canadian market are having challenges getting their product accepted up there. That has led to some oversupply in the U.S."
This country-first movement is one Guenther would welcome seeing more of in the U.S. as well. "It would be wonderful if our retail and food service industry here in the United States would support domestic production like the Canadian retail and foodservice industry in Canada is. It's eye-opening," he says.
Looking ahead on the remainder of the year through June, Guenther anticipates a better outlook than possibly the fall had. "It looks like normal production as long as the weather holds up because we're doing just fine in terms of quality and quantity across the board," he says.
For more information:
Robert L. Guenther
Florida Tomato Committee
Tel: +1 (407) 660-1949
Info@floridatomatoes.org
https://www.floridatomatoes.org/