The USDA Agricultural Statistics Board has released the 2024–2025 Florida all-orange forecast, estimating total production at 11.6 million boxes, up 100,000 boxes from the February forecast. Despite the slight increase, this figure is 35 percent lower than last season's final production. The forecast includes 4.60 million boxes of non-Valencia oranges (early, mid-season, and Navel varieties) and 7.00 million boxes of Valencia oranges.
An eight-year regression was used for comparison, while references to averages exclude the 2017–2018 and 2022–2023 seasons, which were affected by hurricanes. The average fruit per tree figure accounts for both regular and first late bloom.
Non-Valencia orange production increased by 100,000 boxes to 4.60 million. A Row Count survey conducted on February 26–27, 2025, indicated that nearly all early and mid-season non-Valencia rows (excluding Navels) are harvested. The Navel orange forecast within this category remains at 100,000 boxes.
Valencia orange production remains unchanged from February at 7.00 million boxes. Current fruit size is below average and projected to remain so at harvest, requiring 256 fruits per 90-pound box. Droppage rates are above the maximum and are expected to stay high at harvest. The Valencia harvest is still in its early stages.
The grapefruit forecast was raised to 1.20 million boxes, with 1.07 million boxes of red grapefruit and 130,000 boxes of white grapefruit. The Row Count survey showed 93 percent of grapefruit rows harvested.
The lemon forecast remains at 600,000 boxes, unchanged from February.
The forecast for tangerines and tangelos is also unchanged at 350,000 boxes, representing a 22 percent drop from last season's 450,000 boxes. This includes all certified varieties of tangerines and tangelos.
To help evaluate forecast reliability, the USDA uses the Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), a statistical tool measuring forecast accuracy based on 20 years of data. The RMSE for the March 1 all-orange forecast is 5.3 percent, meaning there is a two-thirds chance the forecast will differ from the final estimate by no more than that margin. Excluding abnormal hurricane seasons, RMSE rises slightly to 5.8 percent. With 90 percent confidence, the margin of error is expected to be within 9.1 percent including abnormal seasons, or 10.1 percent without them.
Over the past 20 years, differences between the March 1 forecast and final estimates have averaged 3.52 million boxes (3.79 million excluding abnormal seasons), ranging from 0.00 to 10.7 million boxes. Historically, the March forecast has been below the final estimate six times, equal once, and above thirteen times (excluding abnormal seasons: below five times, equal once, and above ten times). These trends do not suggest the forecast is more likely to understate or overstate the final output this season.
If realized, this production forecast continues a significant decline in Florida citrus, reflecting both biological challenges and weather impacts, and underscores ongoing industry concerns over fruit size, droppage, and market volatility.
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