"The biggest threat for this apple growing season in these next few weeks is dealing with additional cold weather. I don't think you're necessarily going to be having any other adversity."
So says Drew Lerner, president and senior agricultural meteorologist of World Weather, Inc., as he spoke to a USApple webinar, Will Weather Threaten Apple Production in 2025?, yesterday. Here is a closer look at some of what Lerner told attendees about the upcoming season.
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Looking back first
"It's been an interesting winter and early spring, and there's a lot of volatility, generally speaking," says Lerner. While the common belief may be that climate change is behind this kind of weather volatility, he says it's associated with a 22-year solar cycle. (The number of years it takes for the sun's magnetic field to flip as part of two 11-year sunspot cycles) "We're very close to the solar maximum right now, and that's a good place to be to end this long period of volatility."
So what does this mean for some key apple-growing regions?
In the Northeast:
This month, the Northeast will have normal to slightly warmer temperatures. "However, don't let that fool you because we'll still have shots of cold air coming through. I'm worried about them not so much in April, but in May," says Lerner.
The concern, of course, is the timing of this, given that fruit bloom is underway. "Those warm temperatures will stimulate crop development, and then a shot of cold could come," says Lerner, adding though that when that cold does come, the flowering should be largely finished up in the Northeast.
This follows some cold temperatures in recent days, which assists with the number of chill hours apple trees need. That said, there may be some potential damage to the flowering trees in Pennsylvania, parts of New Jersey, and possibly parts of southern New York state. "Since most of the temperatures in these regions in the U.S. were running in the middle to lower 20s this week, most of the crop was probably vulnerable to a bit of damage," says Lerner. "Of all the apple production areas around the country, I'm most concerned about another frost event occurring in the Northeast's Great Lakes region."
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On moisture, there is some level of drought in portions of the Northeast. "If we start missing precipitation, we'll get into a pattern of where it's too hot and dry. There will be bouts of dryness that will come and go," he says.
Looking ahead, in the summer, the region will have a drier tendency. "Having a bit of dryness in the summer for the apple crop is usually a positive thing because it helps to improve flavor and sugar. As long as it's not a chronic dryness, and I do not see it being chronically dry," says Lerner. "Once we get past the frost, I think we'll see a relatively good season in the Northeast."
In the Pacific Northwest:
On the West Coast, the Pacific Northwest and Yakima Valley are dryer right now compared to last year. "The moisture profile in the Northwestern states isn't too bad. There's plenty of snowpack in the mountains, and the runoff potential is pretty good," says Lerner, adding that Washington state has some drier tendencies.
He also adds that the water reservoir levels are lacking somewhat, though that's not unusual for the Yakima Basin in the first days of spring because so much of the moisture is tied up in that snowpack. "That said, moisture equivalency in the mountains is a bit below par. We are below where we were a year ago. I don't think it's a problem for irrigation, and I'm not anticipating excessive heat in the region. Though, it's going to be very important that we end up with a better rainy season next year because we are going to be pretty short on moisture by that time," he says.
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As for the Yakima Basin, it is likely to see more moisture in May. "It'll be a good mix of weather but dry biased in April–maybe in the last week and a half of April a bit of moisture," he says.
Meanwhile, in temperatures, Lerner says there will still be a warm bias in the West–not excessively hot–for the next couple of weeks. "Summer looks like a fairly normal year. We will get a bit more moisture in the heart of summer, but it won't be abundantly wet. If we can avoid excessive heat in the West like we've had in the past, it's looking pretty good. I do not see chronic dryness in the Western areas," he says.
California
For the third year in a row, California is looking at a water supply that is near historical, if not above average. "That's a good thing for water supply and irrigation in that state. Their water situation is not of much concern," he says, adding that the region is not expecting to see the excessive heat it has in recent years.
To find out more about Lerner's weather webinar, go to the USApple website for a replay link.
For more information:
Lynsee Gibbons
US Apple Association
lgibbons@usapple.org
www.usapple.org