The initial subjective forecast for the 2021 California almond production is 3.20 billion pounds. Forecasted production is 3% above last year's production of 3.12 billion pounds. Forecasted bearing acreage for 2021 is a record high of 1,330,000. Forecasted yield is
2,410 pounds per acre, 3% lower than the 2020 yield of 2,490 pounds per acre. The subjective production forecast is based on a telephone survey conducted from April 19 to May 6 from a sample of 500 almond
growers.
The 2021 almond crop experienced a mostly dry winter throughout California. Although there were a few scattered storms, snowpack and water levels are well below normal. Warm temperatures provided excellent bloom conditions, with peak bloom occurring in late February and early March. Pollination activity was reported to be very good with long overlapping bloom periods. The last few days of bloom were impacted by rain, wind and a few instances of hail. Excellent
growing conditions in April benefitted the crop’s development and disease pressure was low.
Expectations of above average yields overall, but lower than in 2020, were reported, with variability showing across regions and age of the trees. The 2021 crop is estimated to be the largest on record.
USDA 2021 California Almond Forecast