The drought of 2022. The freeze of 2021. High demand thanks to factors in other markets. These are all considerations for movement predictions for this year’s Mexican citrus season.
Oranges: Mexican oranges are coming into the season already under pressure on demand. Tony Martinez of Primo Trading Services LLC says it’s only in its second week of shipping oranges this season so inbound shipments are low to start. He’s hoping by the third week that shipping will run more smoothly and volumes will increase.
At the same time, demand is overwhelming. “A lot of it has to do with California--Valencia production has dropped and we’re hearing that navels are still three to four weeks away,” Martinez says. And out of Florida post-Hurricane Ian, Florida Citrus Mutual is reporting that some 365,000 acres of orange production were affected and assessments are ongoing.
The juice concentrate market also continues to see high demand. “When COVID happened, consumption of vitamin C skyrocketed in demand for juice and all citrus items. A lot of retailers are also juicing in-store and has also driven the consumption,” he says.
Early oranges from Mexico should continue to the end of the year and Valencia production should pick up mid to late December and go until June-July 2023.
Not surprisingly, pricing on oranges looks to be higher this year. “We had the freeze two years ago and a drought this year so we’re still not back to 100 percent production pre-freeze. We’re probably at 60-70 percent production pre-freeze estimate,” Martinez says. “So less production, an extremely tight juice market, Mexico domestic and U.S. domestic market demanding fresh product and now it looks like there’ll be a gap in California and a substantial gap in Florida from the hurricane. All of that points to a much more competitive market on oranges.”
Grapefruit: Martinez says it’s still testing acid-Brix ratios and juice samples and at this point, all signs are that harvesting is about three weeks away. “We anticipate to start shipping grapefruit possibly by the end of the month or the first week of November,” he says, noting grapefruit can ship from Mexico through to June/July 2023.
There should be a marked difference between grapefruit coming into the U.S. from Mexico this season though. “The USDA is enforcing the maturity standards much harder this year. That’s good for the industry and for domestic production to make sure we’re all playing by the same rules,” he says. “I think you’ll see less grapefruit being imported this year and grapefruit inbounds much later.”
While early reports are that Hurricane Ian had less of an effect on Florida grapefruit as it did on oranges, even with fewer imports from Mexico, Martinez believes supply-demand will balance out and pricing should be similar to last year’s. “The USDA enforcing maturity standards should eliminate excess loads coming in and should stabilize the market,” says Martinez.
Tangerines: Tangerines should begin shipping at approximately the same time as last year which is the second or third week in November.
“The crop for the most part is predominantly small because of the drought we had in 2022. It looks like the crop will be 80-90 percent on the small side. So expect supply gaps on middle to large fruit,” says Martinez. The season should run until March 2023.
Because of that drought and the citrus trees recovering from the freeze, Martinez estimates there’s a 25 percent reduction on tangerines. “I really do see the Mexican market really high,” he says. “Prices into the U.S. will be, I believe, above the five-year market and will probably start in the high $20s.”
For more information:
Tony Martinez
Primo Trading Services LLC
Tel: +1 (956) 800-4343
tony.martinez@primotradingservices.com
https://www.primotradingservices.com/