The 2022-2023 Florida all orange forecast released today by the USDA Agricultural Statistics Board is 16.0 million boxes, down 2.00 million boxes from the January forecast. If realized, this will be 61 percent less than last season’s final production. The forecast consists of 6.00 million boxes of non-Valencia oranges (early, mid-season, and Navel varieties) and 10.0 million boxes of Valencia oranges. A 9-year regression has been used for comparison purposes. All references to “average”, “minimum”, and “maximum” refer to the previous 10 seasons, excluding the 2017-2018 season, which was affected by Hurricane Irma. Average fruit per tree includes both regular and first late bloom.
Non-Valencia oranges 6 mln boxes
The forecast of non-Valencia production is reduced 1.00 million boxes to 6.00 million boxes. Size and drop components were final last month. The Row Count survey conducted January 24-25, 2023, showed 92 percent of the early and mid-season non-Valencia rows, excluding Navels, are harvested. Estimated utilization for non-Valencia oranges (including Navels) to February 1, with an allocation for non-certified fruit, is 5.77 million boxes. The Navel forecast, included in the non-Valencia portion of the forecast, is 250,000 boxes.
Valencia oranges 10 mln boxes
The forecast of Valencia production is down 1.00 million boxes from the January forecast to 10.0 million boxes. Current fruit size is below the minimum and is projected to be below the minimum at harvest. Current droppage is above the maximum and projected to be above maximum at harvest.
Florida Department of Citrus promises necessary assistance
The crop forecast released on February 8, 2023, was a decrease from the previous forecast released in January. The Florida Department of Citrus released the following statement in response to the USDA Citrus Crop Forecast for the month of February:
“This month’s crop forecast serves as a testament to the hardships Florida Citrus growers continue to face and battle through. It’s no secret that Hurricane Ian and Hurricane Nicole left the heart of citrus country with a long road to recovery, but Florida growers have worked to recover from extreme weather before, and this year is no exception. The Florida Department of Citrus is working alongside industry leaders and elected officials to help ensure Florida citrus growers have the assistance necessary while they continue to replant, rebuild, and work toward long-term solutions in the industry’s fight against citrus greening.”
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Source: nass.usda.gov