South African production of oranges and lemons is projected to decrease in MY 2022/23 due to stagnated production area and a return to normal yield. Grapefruit and tangerine/mandarin production is projected to increase slightly in MY 2022/23 due to favorable weather conditions in major producing regions.
The citrus industry is facing several challenges, including accelerating farming input costs, high shipping rates, infrastructure inefficiencies, and new phytosanitary regulations. As a result, profitability and sustainability of the industry are under threat and could limit future investments. Duty-free exports of citrus to the United States under the African Growth Opportunity Act (AGOA) are expected to continue their strong annual growth, as the United States is still considered a premium market.
Production
The forecast for MY 2022/23 orange production in South Africa has been revised downwards to 1.63 million metric tons (MMT), decreasing by 1 percent from 1.61 MMT in MY 2021/22. The Western Cape province was affected by damage from hailstorms and strong winds, which may hamper production volumes. Additionally, the Eastern Cape province received heavy rains, which could result in a decrease in production. However, other orange producing regions have experienced good weather conditions with sufficient water for irrigation.
Orange production in MY 2021/22 has increased by 6.5 percent year over year. This surge in production is based on above-average rainfall received throughout the season in the main growing regions, ensuring sufficient irrigation water and providing conducive growing conditions that positively impacted production. In MY 2020/21, Post estimates that South Africa produced 1.51 MMT of oranges.
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Source: fas.usda.gov