Global almond production for 2023/24 is forecast 3 percent higher to 1.5 million metric tons (tons) shelled basis on higher output in the United States, Australia, and the European Union. Global consumption is expected to expand 6 percent to 1.6 million tons. Global exports are forecast to rise 5 percent to 1.1 million tons as shipments to China and India continue to rise. Global ending stocks are forecast to drop on a sharp reduction in the United States.
U.S. production is forecast up 1 percent to 1.2 million tons as higher bearing acres and kernel weights more than offset fewer nuts per tree. The almond bloom began in the middle of February and peaked at the end of the month.
Australia production is forecast to rebound 28 percent from last year’s poor crop to total 140,000 tons. A shortage of beehives in key producing regions due to quarantine measures related to Varroa mites was the primary factor for last year’s reduced yields, though flooding in the southern Murray Darling Basin and unfavorable weather throughout the growing season were also contributing factors. While last year’s exports were supplemented by nearly depleting carryover stocks from the previous harvest, additional output is expected to boost exports 5 percent to 100,000 tons.
Walnuts
Global walnut production for 2023/24 is forecast unchanged at 2.7 million tons inshell basis largely due to flat output from top producer China, while gains in the United States and Chile offset losses in the European Union. World consumption is expected nearly flat at 2.7 million tons.
Global exports are forecast to rise 6 percent to 1.0 million tons largely due to rebounding shipments from the United States. World ending stocks are expected 4 percent lower on a slight U.S. drawdown. China production is forecast flat at 1.4 million tons on favorable growing conditions and unchanged area. Exports are expected up 3 percent to a record 245,000 tons on strong shipments to top markets Turkey and the United Arab Emirates. Imports are expected to remain modest at just 15,000 tons as consumers continue to rely on domestic output.
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Source: fas.usda.gov