In market year (MY) 2023/24, total citrus production in Mexico is expected down slightly by 1.5 percent versus the previous year, driven primarily by a reduction in fresh lime production. While fresh orange production is projected up fractionally, increasingly erratic conditions such as prolonged drought and high temperatures affected the main producing regions in the current year and reduced harvest quality. Post expects that with the recovery of the trees, larger fruit with higher juice content will be harvested in MY 2023/24.
Despite higher deliveries of oranges for processing in the current MY, orange juice production and thus exportable supply is expected to decline due to the smaller, drier product. It is projected that fresh juice concentrate production will rebound somewhat in MY 2023/24 as the quality of fresh fruit normalizes. Exports of fresh citrus fruit are projected to remain stable for most varieties, except for a decrease in fresh lemons/limes exports due to the decline in production.
Mexico’s total domestic consumption is down less than one percent across fresh citrus. Although it is estimated that more product will be available for domestic consumption, the economic environment may be an important element in consumer purchasing behavior. While included in Mexico’s basic food basket, or “Canasta Basica”, citrus and other fruit products are generally not considered ‘staples’ by price-sensitive households. High pricing in the foodservice sector also limits consumption growth.
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Source: fas.usda.gov